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A theory of scenario planning.

Chermack, Thomas James.

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A theory of scenario planning.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	A theory of scenario planning./
Author:	Chermack, Thomas James.
Description:	206 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 64-06, Section: A, page: 1947.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International64-06A.
Subject:	Education, Business. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3095454

A theory of scenario planning.
Chermack, Thomas James.

A theory of scenario planning. - 206 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 64-06, Section: A, page: 1947.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Minnesota, 2003.

Strategic planning has helped organization leaders cope with their complex external environments, but it reveals a weakness in its core assumption of a predictable environment. Scenario planning has emerged as a tool for considering uncertainty in the planning process, and it appears to be of high utility in rapidly changing environments. However, the theoretical development is lacking and general research about scenario planning has been minimal.Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017515
Education, Business.

A theory of scenario planning.
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008 130614s2003 eng d
035 $a (UnM)AAI3095454
035 $a AAI3095454
040 $a UnM $c UnM
100 1 $a Chermack, Thomas James. $3 1948557
245 1 2 $a A theory of scenario planning.
300 $a 206 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 64-06, Section: A, page: 1947.
500 $a Adviser: Richard A. Swanson.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Minnesota, 2003.
520 $a Strategic planning has helped organization leaders cope with their complex external environments, but it reveals a weakness in its core assumption of a predictable environment. Scenario planning has emerged as a tool for considering uncertainty in the planning process, and it appears to be of high utility in rapidly changing environments. However, the theoretical development is lacking and general research about scenario planning has been minimal.
520 $a To address the current lack of theory, this research developed a theory of scenario planning following Dubin's (1978) theory building method. Dubin's (1978) eight-step research methodology consists of (1) developing the units of the theory, (2) specifying the laws of interaction describing the relationships among the units, (3) determining the boundaries within which the theory is expected to function, (4) identifying the system states in which the theory is expected to function, (5) specifying the propositions, or truth statements about how the theory is expected to operate, (6) identifying the empirical indicators used to make the propositions testable, and (7) constructing hypotheses used to predict values and relationships among the units.
520 $a The resulting theory is concluded to be of high value to both scenario planning professionals and business practitioners because it provides a basis for consistency in examining scenario planning. Further confirmation or disconfirmation of this new theory will allow more specific conclusions to be drawn about the ultimate effectiveness of scenario planning itself.
590 $a School code: 0130.
650 4 $a Education, Business. $3 1017515
650 4 $a Business Administration, Management. $3 626628
690 $a 0688
690 $a 0454
710 2 0 $a University of Minnesota. $3 676231
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 64-06A.
790 1 0 $a Swanson, Richard A., $e advisor
790 $a 0130
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2003
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3095454