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Time to decide: Probability guessing...

Clark, Kimberly Rose.

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Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints.

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints./
Author:	Clark, Kimberly Rose.
Description:	198 p.
Notes:	Adviser: George L. Wolford.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International66-01B.
Subject:	Psychology, Behavioral. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3161945
ISBN:	9780496957033

Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints.
Clark, Kimberly Rose.

Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints. - 198 p.

Adviser: George L. Wolford.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Dartmouth College, 2005.

Our ability to observe patterns among objects and events in the environment is essential to our survival. Finding potential patterns can be considered advantageous in determining the outcome of a situation, and in turn serves to influence which outcome will be chosen. Ironically, such patterns may be based on subjective inference due to our irrational, yet uniquely human, desire to seek out patterns in truly random events. Does this ability to generate causal associations based on patterns, real or illusory, change when time is a factor in our judgment processes? This thesis examines the relationship between judgments of probability and varying time pressures using a binary task with predetermined, non-contingent outcomes. We hypothesize that frequency matching results from a search for patterns, requiring a specific temporal processing window. If there is not enough time to generate a pattern, the decision made may not reflect the use of a pattern search. Using a 2 choice probability learning task having outcome probabilities of .7 and .3, three experiments were conducted to compare probability guessing behaviors under no time pressure, under a non-reinforced time pressure, and under five varying reinforced response time windows. In all experimental manipulations of time pressure, subject's implicit behavioral responses maintained frequency matching, suggesting that the use of patterns to decipher future outcome events was unaffected by time pressure. Of interest are significant reaction time differences associated with each outcome's probability. Under no time pressure, more time is required to generate a guess toward the less frequent outcome, but this difference disappears when a reinforced time pressure is a factor. Also to be noted are significant differences in subject's explicit written and verbal self reports, as a result of time pressure manipulations. Contradicting the pattern searching behavior found during a time pressure, subjects were more likely to increase their verbal report of pattern perception following the experiment. As a whole, findings from this thesis first present the effects of time pressure on our ability to search for patterns and then discuss how those patterns relate to evidence of left hemispheric interpretive processes, believed to generate causal associations under uncertainty.

ISBN: 9780496957033Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017677
Psychology, Behavioral.

Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints.
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100 1 $a Clark, Kimberly Rose. $3 1293826
245 1 0 $a Time to decide: Probability guessing dynamics under varying time constraints.
300 $a 198 p.
500 $a Adviser: George L. Wolford.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-01, Section: B, page: 0585.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Dartmouth College, 2005.
520 $a Our ability to observe patterns among objects and events in the environment is essential to our survival. Finding potential patterns can be considered advantageous in determining the outcome of a situation, and in turn serves to influence which outcome will be chosen. Ironically, such patterns may be based on subjective inference due to our irrational, yet uniquely human, desire to seek out patterns in truly random events. Does this ability to generate causal associations based on patterns, real or illusory, change when time is a factor in our judgment processes? This thesis examines the relationship between judgments of probability and varying time pressures using a binary task with predetermined, non-contingent outcomes. We hypothesize that frequency matching results from a search for patterns, requiring a specific temporal processing window. If there is not enough time to generate a pattern, the decision made may not reflect the use of a pattern search. Using a 2 choice probability learning task having outcome probabilities of .7 and .3, three experiments were conducted to compare probability guessing behaviors under no time pressure, under a non-reinforced time pressure, and under five varying reinforced response time windows. In all experimental manipulations of time pressure, subject's implicit behavioral responses maintained frequency matching, suggesting that the use of patterns to decipher future outcome events was unaffected by time pressure. Of interest are significant reaction time differences associated with each outcome's probability. Under no time pressure, more time is required to generate a guess toward the less frequent outcome, but this difference disappears when a reinforced time pressure is a factor. Also to be noted are significant differences in subject's explicit written and verbal self reports, as a result of time pressure manipulations. Contradicting the pattern searching behavior found during a time pressure, subjects were more likely to increase their verbal report of pattern perception following the experiment. As a whole, findings from this thesis first present the effects of time pressure on our ability to search for patterns and then discuss how those patterns relate to evidence of left hemispheric interpretive processes, believed to generate causal associations under uncertainty.
590 $a School code: 0059.
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