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What's next? Judging sequences of r...

Oskarsson, An Thuy.

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What's next? Judging sequences of repeated binary events: An explanation-based approach.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	What's next? Judging sequences of repeated binary events: An explanation-based approach./
作者:	Oskarsson, An Thuy.
面頁冊數:	162 p.
附註:	Adviser: Gary McClelland.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International67-05B.
標題:	Psychology, Cognitive. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3219038
ISBN:	9780542684487

What's next? Judging sequences of repeated binary events: An explanation-based approach.
Oskarsson, An Thuy.

What's next? Judging sequences of repeated binary events: An explanation-based approach. - 162 p.

Adviser: Gary McClelland.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Colorado at Boulder, 2006.

The goal of this research was to gain a better understanding of how people make judgments about sequences of repeated binary events (e.g., coin tosses, basketball shots). We begin by reviewing basic empirical findings from research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences, with an emphasis on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others.

ISBN: 9780542684487Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017810
Psychology, Cognitive.

What's next? Judging sequences of repeated binary events: An explanation-based approach.
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520 $a The goal of this research was to gain a better understanding of how people make judgments about sequences of repeated binary events (e.g., coin tosses, basketball shots). We begin by reviewing basic empirical findings from research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences, with an emphasis on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others.
520 $a Next we present studies that focus on the sequences of hits and misses produced by basketball players, and examine how impressions of "hotness" are formed. Previous researchers have argued that people expect basketball players to perform randomly, but when the player's shooting appears unrepresentative of randomness, the notion of randomness is rejected in favor of hotness. However, we found evidence that people typically watch basketball with the expectation that players will perform nonrandomly and "be hot," and that people are biased to confirm this expectation.
520 $a In the third section we explore people's beliefs about the behavior of different sequence generating "mechanisms" by presenting participants with a eight scenarios involving binary sequences (e.g., a series of births), and asking them to make various judgments (e.g., select a plausible sequence, or predict the next outcome for a sequence). We found that people have miscalibrated intuitions about what random and nonrandom sequences should look like, and concluded that sequence judgments are heavily dependent on the mechanisms that observers believe produce the outcomes, as well as on very specific causal explanations.
520 $a Finally, we briefly review prior theories that have been proposed to account for people's predictions of events in sequences, and then introduce our own general framework for sequence judgments. We contend that people test whether observations are representative of a prototypical sequence, and that characteristics of the prototype depend on the attributes of the mental model used to comprehend the sequence-generating "mechanism". We propose and test whether a basic set of model---based on the perceived randomness, control-ability, intentionality, and goals of the sequence generator---underlies people's intuitive expectations about sequences of events.
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