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Continue or quit decisions in sequen...

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian Joseph.

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Continue or quit decisions in sequential trial situations.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Continue or quit decisions in sequential trial situations./
作者:	Zikmund-Fisher, Brian Joseph.
面頁冊數:	132 p.
附註:	Chair: Robyn M. Dawes.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International63-03B.
標題:	Psychology, Cognitive. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3045244
ISBN:	9780493592312

Continue or quit decisions in sequential trial situations.
Zikmund-Fisher, Brian Joseph.

Continue or quit decisions in sequential trial situations. - 132 p.

Chair: Robyn M. Dawes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 2002.

How long do individuals persist when faced with repeated, failed attempts to achieve a valued goal? If they quit, why do they do so? Three possible explanations for decisions to quit in sequential trial situations are investigated: First, individuals may misperceive the randomness of outcomes, leading to positive recency expectations and beliefs that future attempts will fail. Second, individuals may track the cumulative sunk costs of repeated attempts and quit when they exceed a mental budget. Third, individuals may estimate the cumulative probability of success over time and quit when it reaches a certain level.

ISBN: 9780493592312Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017810
Psychology, Cognitive.

Continue or quit decisions in sequential trial situations.
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300 $a 132 p.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-03, Section: B, page: 1585.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 2002.
520 $a How long do individuals persist when faced with repeated, failed attempts to achieve a valued goal? If they quit, why do they do so? Three possible explanations for decisions to quit in sequential trial situations are investigated: First, individuals may misperceive the randomness of outcomes, leading to positive recency expectations and beliefs that future attempts will fail. Second, individuals may track the cumulative sunk costs of repeated attempts and quit when they exceed a mental budget. Third, individuals may estimate the cumulative probability of success over time and quit when it reaches a certain level.
520 $a Three WWW-administered experiments presented subjects with a multi-trial lottery-type "contest." Subjects played for real money, incurred a cost for making each attempt, and decided after each trial whether to continue trying or to quit. Chances of success were either known and constant or else ambiguous due to population heterogeneity, i.e., multiple types of lottery machines, each type with a different percentage of winning balls. Subjects were told the relative proportion of each type of lottery machine but not which type they had selected. Finally, subjects who quit were asked several questions to help identify why they chose to do so.
520 $a The results show that many subjects facing known, constant probabilities of success quit trying after experiencing a few failures, despite the fact that doing so violates economic rationality. Furthermore, when facing an ambiguous chance of success, subjects generally make fewer attempts than is appropriate given the true odds of success. Propensity to quit also appears to be significantly higher for female subjects than for male subjects. Both behavioral and perceptual data suggest that decisions to quit arise primarily from positive recency expectations, and the results are discussed in terms of Gideon Keren and Charles Lewis's (1994) Type II gambler's fallacy and placing too much weight on the informational value of each observed outcome. The findings have implications for understanding many types of dropout behaviors as well as cumulative risk communication.
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