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The gambler's fallacy.

Gold, Eric.

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The gambler's fallacy.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The gambler's fallacy./
作者:	Gold, Eric.
面頁冊數:	216 p.
附註:	Chair: Robyn Dawes.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International58-07B.
標題:	Psychology, Experimental. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9802536
ISBN:	9780591522563

The gambler's fallacy.
Gold, Eric.

The gambler's fallacy. - 216 p.

Chair: Robyn Dawes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1997.

The gambler's fallacy is a mistaken belief that a past repetition of the same independent, random outcome somehow increases the probability of a different future random outcome. The belief that a coin will come up tails after a run of heads is an example of the fallacy.

ISBN: 9780591522563Subjects--Topical Terms:

517106
Psychology, Experimental.

The gambler's fallacy.
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245 1 4 $a The gambler's fallacy.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 58-07, Section: B, page: 3950.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1997.
520 $a The gambler's fallacy is a mistaken belief that a past repetition of the same independent, random outcome somehow increases the probability of a different future random outcome. The belief that a coin will come up tails after a run of heads is an example of the fallacy.
520 $a This dissertation attempts to discover the nature and mechanism of this kind of perceived dependence by examining situations in which the gambler's fallacy can be found and ways in which the fallacy can be reduced or increased. The experiments presented here are designed to increase our knowledge of how people conceptualize independence, and thus lead to a better understanding of representativeness, illusion of control, and luck.
520 $a If people believe that there is a dependency among trials, they must also believe that there is a mechanism effecting that dependency. The dissertation takes up the task of locating that mechanism. One possibility is that any group of events that people can arrange into a category defines a process underlying the generation of those random events, and independent events created by that process will be perceived to be dependent on one another. In this case, events created by two different processes would not be perceived as dependent.
520 $a Another possibility is that locus of the mechanism is the gambling device itself. Here, people may engage in some sort of mental bookkeeping in which they associate due outcomes with a particular device. Such an explanation may require that subjects engage in a seemingly implausible "relationship" with the device, one in which both the ability to effect outcomes and the volition to do so are unknowingly attributed to the device. Through eighteen experiments, the dissertation argues for this explanation.
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