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Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes.

Holliday, James Roy.

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Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes./
作者:	Holliday, James Roy.
面頁冊數:	257 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-02, Section: B, page: 0895.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International69-02B.
標題:	Geophysics. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3303163
ISBN:	9780549493679

Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes.
Holliday, James Roy.

Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes. - 257 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-02, Section: B, page: 0895.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Davis, 2007.

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. Recent studies by Rundle et al. [2000a, 20006, 2002, 2003] and Tiampo et al. [2002a, 2002b, 2002c] have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this method has been encouragingly successful, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation, optimization, and generalization all still need to be performed. In addition, other possible precursors to large events should be sought out and other active tectonic and earthquake models and simulations should be constructed. In this thesis, I discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on the pattern informatics methods put forth by Rundle and Tiampo and collaborators. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ("hotspots") where earthquakes are forecast to occur in some future time span. Furthermore, I show that this approach can be successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis.

ISBN: 9780549493679Subjects--Topical Terms:

535228
Geophysics.

Forecasting large magnitude earthquakes.
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