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Forecasting Elections in a Multiparty System : = The Case of Portugal and Brazil.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Forecasting Elections in a Multiparty System :/
其他題名:	The Case of Portugal and Brazil.
作者:	Rawicz, Fernando Carlos Araujo.
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (60 pages)
附註:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 84-06, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International84-06B.
標題:	Public opinion. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=30208744click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798358451520

Forecasting Elections in a Multiparty System : = The Case of Portugal and Brazil.
Rawicz, Fernando Carlos Araujo.

Forecasting Elections in a Multiparty System :The Case of Portugal and Brazil. - 1 online resource (60 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 84-06, Section: B.

Thesis (Master's)--Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal), 2022.

Includes bibliographical references

This work tries to forecast election results in Brazil and Portugal using two bayesian models and one frequentist in order to find out which one has better results. We will use older election's results and polls in order to check if there are sistematical biases towards certain parties. We also use macroeconomical data to check how influential this data is to forecast election. The analysis pointed out that there are no sistematical biases for any party in any polling company. We also found out that there is no significant relationship between macroeconomic data and the election results in these countries. Furthermore, the fact that both examples had few elections and have a lot of parties which are constantly being created and dismissed, there is not a "perfect" model, however, they all have very acceptable results.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2023

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798358451520Subjects--Topical Terms:

531264
Public opinion.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

542853
Electronic books.

Forecasting Elections in a Multiparty System : = The Case of Portugal and Brazil.
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500 $a Advisor: Paulo, Rui.
502 $a Thesis (Master's)--Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal), 2022.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a This work tries to forecast election results in Brazil and Portugal using two bayesian models and one frequentist in order to find out which one has better results. We will use older election's results and polls in order to check if there are sistematical biases towards certain parties. We also use macroeconomical data to check how influential this data is to forecast election. The analysis pointed out that there are no sistematical biases for any party in any polling company. We also found out that there is no significant relationship between macroeconomic data and the election results in these countries. Furthermore, the fact that both examples had few elections and have a lot of parties which are constantly being created and dismissed, there is not a "perfect" model, however, they all have very acceptable results.
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