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The Catalytic Effect of International Monetary Fund Programs: Domestic Sources of State Credibility.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The Catalytic Effect of International Monetary Fund Programs: Domestic Sources of State Credibility./
作者:	Shim, Sujeong.
出版者:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2021,
面頁冊數:	205 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-02, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International83-02A.
標題:	Political science. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28549617
ISBN:	9798516967467

The Catalytic Effect of International Monetary Fund Programs: Domestic Sources of State Credibility.
Shim, Sujeong.

The Catalytic Effect of International Monetary Fund Programs: Domestic Sources of State Credibility. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021 - 205 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-02, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Wisconsin - Madison, 2021.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

In this dissertation, I explain variations in private international investors' reactions to International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. Why do IMF programs successfully catalyze private capital into some borrowers' economies ("the catalytic effect") but not others? Focusing on a borrower's domestic politics, I argue that a borrower government's popularity is an important cue for investors about the government's ability to implement essential IMF conditionality. Therefore, more popular governments can send stronger signals about their credibility, and investors react more favorably to more popular borrowers. This framework suggests that public opinion is a critical determinant of IMF programs' catalytic effects in two ways. First, public opinion shapes the terms of IMF programs, which in turn affect the program's catalytic effect. I call this "indirect effect" of public opinion. Second, after the announcement of IMF programs, public opinion still has critical impact on investors' reaction because it sends a signal about the implementation likelihood of IMF conditionality. In other words, public opinion has a "direct effect" on investor reactions throughout IMF programs. It acts as a heuristic for success of the IMF programs. Importantly, however, the effect of public opinion decays over time: it provides the strongest impact at the beginning of a Fund program, when investors have less information about the program's success. Using annual data from up to 52 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2017 and a process-tracing case study on the 2010 Greek sovereign debt crisis, I find robust statistical evidence supporting these claims: a popular borrower receives a more lenient IMF program and more favorable reactions from investors. Although public opinion affects the terms of IMF programs, I also find that a borrower's domestic public opinion plays a much more important role than the terms of IMF programs for investor reaction. These results indicate that the "direct effect" of public opinion is more critical than the "indirect effect" to trigger the catalytic effect. My findings have important implications for the study of global financial governance, credible commitment and international organizations.

ISBN: 9798516967467Subjects--Topical Terms:

528916
Political science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Emerging market economies

The Catalytic Effect of International Monetary Fund Programs: Domestic Sources of State Credibility.
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