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Judgment in predictive analytics

Seifert, Matthias.

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Judgment in predictive analytics

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Judgment in predictive analytics/ edited by Matthias Seifert.
其他作者:	Seifert, Matthias.
出版者:	Cham :Springer International Publishing : : 2023.,
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (xiv, 313 p.) :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
標題:	Predictive analytics. -
電子資源:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1
ISBN:	9783031300851

Judgment in predictive analytics
Judgment in predictive analytics[electronic resource] /edited by Matthias Seifert. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2023. - 1 online resource (xiv, 313 p.) :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm. - International series in operations research & management science,v. 3432214-7934 ;. - International series in operations research & management science ;v. 343..

This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.

ISBN: 9783031300851

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

3487786
Predictive analytics.

LC Class. No.: QA76.9.Q36

Dewey Class. No.: 001.42

Judgment in predictive analytics
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520 $a This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.
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