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Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health D...

Denis Pagliero, Angela Maria.

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Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults./
Author:	Denis Pagliero, Angela Maria.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2021,
Description:	102 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International83-01B.
Subject:	Public health. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28416747
ISBN:	9798516958557

Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults.
Denis Pagliero, Angela Maria.

Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021 - 102 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Chicago, 2021.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

As the population ages, governments and international organizations are trying to lengthen the labor-force participation of older adults. For older adults, health is an important determinant of working decisions. In this paper, I introduce heterogeneity in health dynamics with age and argue uncertainty about health dynamics affects the working decisions of older adults. Using the Health and Retirement Study, I first show evidence of heterogeneity in health profiles with age. Second, I use subjective survival expectations to infer health beliefs in a Bayesian-learning framework. Third, I flexibly estimate how working decisions depend on those beliefs, using a neural-network approach that does not require additional structure. The results show beliefs have substantial negative bias. That is, on average, individuals incorrectly believe their health will deteriorate too fast. Furthermore, eliminating that bias would increase labor-force participation by up to 2 percentage points. In the last part of the paper, I look at a policy that could affect beliefs: the provision of information on blood glucose and cholesterol levels. I take advantage of the randomization in the collection and provision of such information. The results show the information has only small effects on beliefs and working decisions, and consequently, policies with larger effects on beliefs are needed to delay retirement.

ISBN: 9798516958557Subjects--Topical Terms:

534748
Public health.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Beliefs

Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults.
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100 1 $a Denis Pagliero, Angela Maria. $3 3566234
245 1 0 $a Heterogeneous and Uncertain Health Dynamics and Working Decisions of Older Adults.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2021
300 $a 102 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.
500 $a Advisor: Bonhomme, Stephane.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Chicago, 2021.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a As the population ages, governments and international organizations are trying to lengthen the labor-force participation of older adults. For older adults, health is an important determinant of working decisions. In this paper, I introduce heterogeneity in health dynamics with age and argue uncertainty about health dynamics affects the working decisions of older adults. Using the Health and Retirement Study, I first show evidence of heterogeneity in health profiles with age. Second, I use subjective survival expectations to infer health beliefs in a Bayesian-learning framework. Third, I flexibly estimate how working decisions depend on those beliefs, using a neural-network approach that does not require additional structure. The results show beliefs have substantial negative bias. That is, on average, individuals incorrectly believe their health will deteriorate too fast. Furthermore, eliminating that bias would increase labor-force participation by up to 2 percentage points. In the last part of the paper, I look at a policy that could affect beliefs: the provision of information on blood glucose and cholesterol levels. I take advantage of the randomization in the collection and provision of such information. The results show the information has only small effects on beliefs and working decisions, and consequently, policies with larger effects on beliefs are needed to delay retirement.
590 $a School code: 0330.
650 4 $a Public health. $3 534748
650 4 $a Gerontology. $3 533633
650 4 $a Biomarkers. $3 2205735
650 4 $a Older people. $3 761975
650 4 $a Bias. $2 gtt $3 1374837
653 $a Beliefs
653 $a Health dynamics
653 $a Older adults
653 $a Retirement
653 $a Uncertainty
690 $a 0510
690 $a 0624
690 $a 0573
690 $a 0351
710 2 $a The University of Chicago. $b Economics. $3 1672980
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 83-01B.
790 $a 0330
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2021
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28416747