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Historical and Future Changes in Col...

Smith, Erik Tyler.

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Historical and Future Changes in Cold Air Outbreaks Across the Globe and the Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Historical and Future Changes in Cold Air Outbreaks Across the Globe and the Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections./
Author:	Smith, Erik Tyler.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2021,
Description:	159 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 82-10, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International82-10B.
Subject:	Geography. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28487159
ISBN:	9798597090283

Historical and Future Changes in Cold Air Outbreaks Across the Globe and the Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections.
Smith, Erik Tyler.

Historical and Future Changes in Cold Air Outbreaks Across the Globe and the Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021 - 159 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 82-10, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Kent State University, 2021.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme events that can negatively impact the agricultural industry, human health, and cause widespread power outages from increased energy consumption. A systematic CAO classification was developed using two different climate reanalysis data sets from 1979 - 2018. Trends in CAOs were calculated for different regions across the globe and the results from each reanalysis dataset compared with one another to identify discrepancies. CAOs occur more frequently in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere with the highest number of CAOs in Europe, Central Eurasia, and North America. CAOs were found to have decreased in spatial extent, frequency, duration, and magnitude across much of the globe, particularly across Alaska, Canada, and the North Atlantic, while an increase in CAOs was observed in Eastern Europe, Central Eurasia, and the Southern Ocean. Early and late winter CAOs have also become much less frequent in most regions. Increasing the predictability of CAOs is critical to limiting the adverse impacts on society, but skillful predictions rely on well-defined mechanisms of causation. To improve the understanding of CAO mechanisms, this study examines the relationship between atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection indices and CAOs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during two distinct periods, 1979 - 1998 and 1999 - 2018. Changes in the relationship between CAOs and teleconnections during these two periods are calculated and used to determine the teleconnections that currently have the strongest relationship with CAOs across the NH. Several significant relationships are found to no longer be significant while several other significant relationships have emerged, particularly with the Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. Upstream teleconnections, as opposed to downstream teleconnections, were generally found to have a stronger relationship with CAOs. The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and East Pacific/North Pacific (EPNP) pattern were found to have the strongest relationship with CAOs in the eastern United States (US) and Alaska, while the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Greenland Blocking Index (GBI), and Scandinavian (SCA) pattern have the strongest relationship with CAOs in Eurasia. Finally, historical and future simulated temperature data from five climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparing Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to understand how climate change might alter cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the future. Three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP 1 - 2.6, SSP 2 - 4.5, and SSP 5 - 8.5 are examined to identify potential fluctuations in CAOs across the globe between 2015 and 2054. Though CAOs may remain persistent or even increase in some regions through 2040, all five climate models show CAOs disappearing by 2054. Climate models were able to accurately simulate the spatial distribution and trends of historical CAOs, but there were large errors in the simulated interannual frequency of CAOs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Fluctuations in complex processes, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, may be contributing to each model's inability to simulate historical CAOs in these regions.

ISBN: 9798597090283Subjects--Topical Terms:

524010
Geography.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Cold air outbreaks

Historical and Future Changes in Cold Air Outbreaks Across the Globe and the Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections.
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