語系:
繁體中文
English
說明(常見問題)
回圖書館首頁
手機版館藏查詢
登入
回首頁
切換:
標籤
|
MARC模式
|
ISBD
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statis...
~
Sengupta, Agniv .
FindBook
Google Book
Amazon
博客來
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution.
紀錄類型:
書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution./
作者:
Sengupta, Agniv .
出版者:
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2020,
面頁冊數:
186 p.
附註:
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 82-02, Section: B.
Contained By:
Dissertations Abstracts International82-02B.
標題:
Atmospheric sciences. -
電子資源:
https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=27667694
ISBN:
9798662446694
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution.
Sengupta, Agniv .
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution.
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2020 - 186 p.
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 82-02, Section: B.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Maryland, College Park, 2020.
This item is not available from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses.
The South Asian summer monsoon brings copious amounts of rainfall accounting for over 70% of the annual rainfall over India. Summer monsoon predictions have drawn considerable public/policy attention lately as South Asia has become a resource-stressed and densely populated region. This environmental backdrop and the livelihood concerns of a billion-plus people generate the demand for more accurate monsoon predictions. The prediction skill, however, has remained marginal and stagnant for several decades despite advances in the representation of physical processes, numerical model resolution, and data assimilation techniques, leading to the following key question: what is the potential predictability of summer monsoon rainfall at lead times of one month to a season?This dissertation examines the role of influential climate system components with large thermal inertia and reliable long-term observational records, like sea-surface temperature (SST) in forecasting the seasonal distribution of South Asian monsoon rainfall. First, an evolution-centric SST analysis is conducted in the global oceans using the extended-Empirical Orthogonal Function technique to uncover the recurrent modes of spatiotemporal variability and their potential inter-basin linkages. A statistical forecast model is next developed using these extracted modes of SST variability as predictors. Assessment of the forecasting system's long-term performance from reconstruction and hindcasting over an independent verification period demonstrates high forecast skill over core monsoon regions-the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern peninsular India, indicating prospects for improved seasonal predictions. The influence of SSTs on the northeast winter monsoon is subsequently investigated, especially, its evolution, interannual variability and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Key findings from this study include evidence of increased rainfall over southeastern peninsular India and Sri Lanka (generated by an off-equatorial anticyclonic circulation centered over the Bay of Bengal) during El Nino winters.This dissertation provides the first quantitative assessment of the potential predictability of summer monsoon rainfall anomalies-the maximum predictable summer rainfall signal (amount, distribution) over South Asia from prior SST information-at various seasonal leads, and notably, at SST-mode resolution. The improved skill of the SST-based statistical forecast establishes the bar-an evaluative benchmark-for the dynamical prediction of summer monsoon rainfall.
ISBN: 9798662446694Subjects--Topical Terms:
3168354
Atmospheric sciences.
Subjects--Index Terms:
Data mining
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution.
LDR
:03891nmm a2200397 4500
001
2278497
005
20210628082332.5
008
220723s2020 ||||||||||||||||| ||eng d
020
$a
9798662446694
035
$a
(MiAaPQ)AAI27667694
035
$a
AAI27667694
040
$a
MiAaPQ
$c
MiAaPQ
100
1
$a
Sengupta, Agniv .
$0
(orcid)0000-0003-3687-5549
$3
3556874
245
1 0
$a
Sea-Surface Temperature Based Statistical Prediction of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Distribution.
260
1
$a
Ann Arbor :
$b
ProQuest Dissertations & Theses,
$c
2020
300
$a
186 p.
500
$a
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 82-02, Section: B.
500
$a
Advisor: Nigam, Sumant.
502
$a
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Maryland, College Park, 2020.
506
$a
This item is not available from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses.
506
$a
This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520
$a
The South Asian summer monsoon brings copious amounts of rainfall accounting for over 70% of the annual rainfall over India. Summer monsoon predictions have drawn considerable public/policy attention lately as South Asia has become a resource-stressed and densely populated region. This environmental backdrop and the livelihood concerns of a billion-plus people generate the demand for more accurate monsoon predictions. The prediction skill, however, has remained marginal and stagnant for several decades despite advances in the representation of physical processes, numerical model resolution, and data assimilation techniques, leading to the following key question: what is the potential predictability of summer monsoon rainfall at lead times of one month to a season?This dissertation examines the role of influential climate system components with large thermal inertia and reliable long-term observational records, like sea-surface temperature (SST) in forecasting the seasonal distribution of South Asian monsoon rainfall. First, an evolution-centric SST analysis is conducted in the global oceans using the extended-Empirical Orthogonal Function technique to uncover the recurrent modes of spatiotemporal variability and their potential inter-basin linkages. A statistical forecast model is next developed using these extracted modes of SST variability as predictors. Assessment of the forecasting system's long-term performance from reconstruction and hindcasting over an independent verification period demonstrates high forecast skill over core monsoon regions-the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern peninsular India, indicating prospects for improved seasonal predictions. The influence of SSTs on the northeast winter monsoon is subsequently investigated, especially, its evolution, interannual variability and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Key findings from this study include evidence of increased rainfall over southeastern peninsular India and Sri Lanka (generated by an off-equatorial anticyclonic circulation centered over the Bay of Bengal) during El Nino winters.This dissertation provides the first quantitative assessment of the potential predictability of summer monsoon rainfall anomalies-the maximum predictable summer rainfall signal (amount, distribution) over South Asia from prior SST information-at various seasonal leads, and notably, at SST-mode resolution. The improved skill of the SST-based statistical forecast establishes the bar-an evaluative benchmark-for the dynamical prediction of summer monsoon rainfall.
590
$a
School code: 0117.
650
4
$a
Atmospheric sciences.
$3
3168354
650
4
$a
Water resources management.
$3
794747
650
4
$a
Climate change.
$2
bicssc
$3
2079509
653
$a
Data mining
653
$a
Monsoon
653
$a
Rainfall
653
$a
Sea-surface temperature
653
$a
Spatiotemporal analysis
653
$a
Statistical prediction
690
$a
0725
690
$a
0595
690
$a
0404
710
2
$a
University of Maryland, College Park.
$b
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
$3
1266201
773
0
$t
Dissertations Abstracts International
$g
82-02B.
790
$a
0117
791
$a
Ph.D.
792
$a
2020
793
$a
English
856
4 0
$u
https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=27667694
筆 0 讀者評論
館藏地:
全部
電子資源
出版年:
卷號:
館藏
1 筆 • 頁數 1 •
1
條碼號
典藏地名稱
館藏流通類別
資料類型
索書號
使用類型
借閱狀態
預約狀態
備註欄
附件
W9430230
電子資源
11.線上閱覽_V
電子書
EB
一般使用(Normal)
在架
0
1 筆 • 頁數 1 •
1
多媒體
評論
新增評論
分享你的心得
Export
取書館
處理中
...
變更密碼
登入