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Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensificati...

Fischer, Michael S.

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Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs: Environmental Influences and Convective Characteristics.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs: Environmental Influences and Convective Characteristics./
Author:	Fischer, Michael S.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2018,
Description:	250 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-02, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International80-02B.
Subject:	Meteorology. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10839442
ISBN:	9780438192188

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs: Environmental Influences and Convective Characteristics.
Fischer, Michael S.

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs: Environmental Influences and Convective Characteristics. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2018 - 250 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-02, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--State University of New York at Albany, 2018.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid intensification episodes in the presence of upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with unique environmental, vortex, and convective characteristics. Furthermore, this dissertation seeks to identify whether newly formed tropical cyclones that interact with upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with different intensification mechanisms than more intense storms. A two-part climatological analysis was performed. The first part consisted of an analysis of newly formed tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin, which formed in environments with a nearby trough. The second part consisted of a climatological analysis of all tropical cyclone--trough interaction events in the North Atlantic, regardless of the tropical cyclone intensity. To account for trough morphology variability, a machine-learning technique was implemented, which objectively identified three unique tropical cyclone--trough configurations. Statistically significant differences in the rate of tropical cyclone intensification within the three tropical cyclone--trough configurations were discovered. Configurations characterized by troughs or cutoff lows located near, and to the southwest of, the tropical cyclone were associated with the greatest rates of tropical cyclone intensification. Differences in the frequency of rapid intensification in each trough configuration were also discovered. It was found that rapid intensification is preferred in tropical cyclone--trough configurations associated with less ventilation of the tropical cyclone inner core and in environments of anomalously weaker vertical stability. To compare the convective characteristics of tropical cyclones, a novel convective normalization technique was developed, which controls for differences in the tropical cyclone convective structure due to differences in intensity. It was determined rapid intensification episodes were associated with significantly greater anomalously vigorous convective activity, especially in the upshear quadrants of the storm, than tropical cyclones that intensify at lesser rates. Ensemble simulations of a rapid intensification event in the presence of an upper-tropospheric trough revealed the rate of tropical cyclone intensification was closely linked to a complex, multi-scale relationship between environmental-, vortex-, and convective-scale processes. Ensemble members with initially greater rates of tropical cyclone intensification were associated with smaller vortex tilts, less ventilation of the tropical cyclone inner core, and greater upshear convection.

ISBN: 9780438192188Subjects--Topical Terms:

542822
Meteorology.

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs: Environmental Influences and Convective Characteristics.
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500 $a Publisher info.: Dissertation/Thesis.
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520 $a Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid intensification episodes in the presence of upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with unique environmental, vortex, and convective characteristics. Furthermore, this dissertation seeks to identify whether newly formed tropical cyclones that interact with upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with different intensification mechanisms than more intense storms. A two-part climatological analysis was performed. The first part consisted of an analysis of newly formed tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin, which formed in environments with a nearby trough. The second part consisted of a climatological analysis of all tropical cyclone--trough interaction events in the North Atlantic, regardless of the tropical cyclone intensity. To account for trough morphology variability, a machine-learning technique was implemented, which objectively identified three unique tropical cyclone--trough configurations. Statistically significant differences in the rate of tropical cyclone intensification within the three tropical cyclone--trough configurations were discovered. Configurations characterized by troughs or cutoff lows located near, and to the southwest of, the tropical cyclone were associated with the greatest rates of tropical cyclone intensification. Differences in the frequency of rapid intensification in each trough configuration were also discovered. It was found that rapid intensification is preferred in tropical cyclone--trough configurations associated with less ventilation of the tropical cyclone inner core and in environments of anomalously weaker vertical stability. To compare the convective characteristics of tropical cyclones, a novel convective normalization technique was developed, which controls for differences in the tropical cyclone convective structure due to differences in intensity. It was determined rapid intensification episodes were associated with significantly greater anomalously vigorous convective activity, especially in the upshear quadrants of the storm, than tropical cyclones that intensify at lesser rates. Ensemble simulations of a rapid intensification event in the presence of an upper-tropospheric trough revealed the rate of tropical cyclone intensification was closely linked to a complex, multi-scale relationship between environmental-, vortex-, and convective-scale processes. Ensemble members with initially greater rates of tropical cyclone intensification were associated with smaller vortex tilts, less ventilation of the tropical cyclone inner core, and greater upshear convection.
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