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Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation = = EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation =/
其他題名:	EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA.
作者:	Galvez, Christian Pedro Yarleque.
出版者:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2018,
面頁冊數:	179 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International79-12B.
標題:	Geophysics. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10812377
ISBN:	9780438004542

Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation = = EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA.
Galvez, Christian Pedro Yarleque.

Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation =EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2018 - 179 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--State University of New York at Albany, 2018.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Glaciated areas over the central Andes are highly sensitive to atmospheric forcings, as demonstrated by their current accelerated retreat in response to global warming. The present Thesis is focused on quantifying and assessing future climate change impacts over Quelccaya ice cap (QIC), the world-largest tropical ice body, which is considered as a representative case of the tropical Andean cryosphere. I focused my study on characterizing large-scale forcing and future changes of precipitation and temperature, since they represent the most important variables for accumulation and ablation processes in glaciated mountain regions. In my research I developed tools to overcome the lack of in-situ information over mountain regions; I addressed the challenge to obtain accurate precipitation estimates from coarse-resolution global climate models (GCM), and developed projection of the future state and evolution of the QIC. A new high-resolution (~1 km2 and 10 calendar days) precipitation reconstruction method was built and yielded data that improves information regarding precipitation over complex terrain and confirms that local precipitation over the central Andes is highly dependent on regional forcings. This relationship was quantified by a linear model relating local QIC precipitation to regional precipitation (mean of precipitation data from 9 in-situ weather stations surrounding QIC). In addition, an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) multi-linear model was built to quantify the association between regional precipitation and large-scale atmospheric parameters. Both the linear and multi-linear models were used to calculate future QIC precipitation taking as input large-scale climatic parameters (zonal and meridional wind at 500 hPa, and omega at 700 hPa) from the CMIP5 model simulations for historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, across the 21st century. The results do not show any major future changes for QIC precipitation regardless of scenarios. Instead the role of precipitation will be mediated through temperature, as changes in the (snow/rain/mixed) precipitation phase will likely be a major factor for the future QIC net mass balance. Future projections of air temperature (Ta) and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) at QIC summit were derived using the CMIP5 model simulations; with the ELA being derived indirectly through its linear association with the freezing level height (FLH). Results show that Ta at QIC will increase between 0.25 and 0.57 ºC/decade, resulting in a warming of 2.4ºC and 5.4ºC at QIC summit by the end of the 21st century in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The critical value of Ta=-1ºC, where the precipitation phase will start to switch from solid to liquid and increasingly result in mixed precipitation will reach the summit around 2070 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the analysis of future ELA projections, the contribution of the elevation-dependent warming (EDW) effect to warming over the QIC is quantified and indicates that EDW adds about 7.6% and 9.9%, for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, of extra ELA rise per decade. Finally, ELA projections under the high-emission scenario will rise continuously yielding an increasingly more negative mass balance of the QIC, thereby accelerating the ice cap retreat. It is estimated that starting around the 2055, for the RCP8.5 scenario, the ELA will be located at or above the QIC summit, thereby turning the entire ice cap into an ablation zone, which would lead to the eventual complete disappearance of the ice cap.

ISBN: 9780438004542Subjects--Topical Terms:

535228
Geophysics.

Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation = = EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA.
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245 1 0 $a Climate Change on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Central Andes, and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Circulation = $b EFECTOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO SOBRE LA CAPA DE HIELO QUELCCAYA, ANDES CENTRALES Y SU RELACION CON LA CIRCULACION A GRAN ESCALA.
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300 $a 179 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12, Section: B.
500 $a Publisher info.: Dissertation/Thesis.
500 $a Advisor: Vuille, Mathias.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--State University of New York at Albany, 2018.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a Glaciated areas over the central Andes are highly sensitive to atmospheric forcings, as demonstrated by their current accelerated retreat in response to global warming. The present Thesis is focused on quantifying and assessing future climate change impacts over Quelccaya ice cap (QIC), the world-largest tropical ice body, which is considered as a representative case of the tropical Andean cryosphere. I focused my study on characterizing large-scale forcing and future changes of precipitation and temperature, since they represent the most important variables for accumulation and ablation processes in glaciated mountain regions. In my research I developed tools to overcome the lack of in-situ information over mountain regions; I addressed the challenge to obtain accurate precipitation estimates from coarse-resolution global climate models (GCM), and developed projection of the future state and evolution of the QIC. A new high-resolution (~1 km2 and 10 calendar days) precipitation reconstruction method was built and yielded data that improves information regarding precipitation over complex terrain and confirms that local precipitation over the central Andes is highly dependent on regional forcings. This relationship was quantified by a linear model relating local QIC precipitation to regional precipitation (mean of precipitation data from 9 in-situ weather stations surrounding QIC). In addition, an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) multi-linear model was built to quantify the association between regional precipitation and large-scale atmospheric parameters. Both the linear and multi-linear models were used to calculate future QIC precipitation taking as input large-scale climatic parameters (zonal and meridional wind at 500 hPa, and omega at 700 hPa) from the CMIP5 model simulations for historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, across the 21st century. The results do not show any major future changes for QIC precipitation regardless of scenarios. Instead the role of precipitation will be mediated through temperature, as changes in the (snow/rain/mixed) precipitation phase will likely be a major factor for the future QIC net mass balance. Future projections of air temperature (Ta) and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) at QIC summit were derived using the CMIP5 model simulations; with the ELA being derived indirectly through its linear association with the freezing level height (FLH). Results show that Ta at QIC will increase between 0.25 and 0.57 ºC/decade, resulting in a warming of 2.4ºC and 5.4ºC at QIC summit by the end of the 21st century in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The critical value of Ta=-1ºC, where the precipitation phase will start to switch from solid to liquid and increasingly result in mixed precipitation will reach the summit around 2070 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the analysis of future ELA projections, the contribution of the elevation-dependent warming (EDW) effect to warming over the QIC is quantified and indicates that EDW adds about 7.6% and 9.9%, for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, of extra ELA rise per decade. Finally, ELA projections under the high-emission scenario will rise continuously yielding an increasingly more negative mass balance of the QIC, thereby accelerating the ice cap retreat. It is estimated that starting around the 2055, for the RCP8.5 scenario, the ELA will be located at or above the QIC summit, thereby turning the entire ice cap into an ablation zone, which would lead to the eventual complete disappearance of the ice cap.
520 $a Las areas glaciares sobre los Andes centrales son altamente sensibles a los forzamientos atmosfericos, como lo demuestra su acelerado retroceso glaciar actual en respuesta al calentamiento global. La presente Tesis se centra en cuantificar y evaluar los impactos futuros del cambio climatico sobre el casquete glaciar llamado Quelccaya (QIC), el cuerpo de hielo tropical mas grande del mundo, que se considera un caso representativo de la criosfera andina tropical. Mi estudio busca caracterizar el forzamiento a gran escala y los cambios futuros de precipitacion y temperatura, las variables mas importantes en los procesos de acumulacion y ablacion en las regiones glaciarizadas montanosas. En mi investigacion desarrolle herramientas para superar la falta de informacion local sobre las regiones montanosas; Aborde el desafio de obtener estimaciones de precipitacion precisas a partir de modelos climaticos globales (GCM) de baja resolucion y el desarrollo de projecciones del estado futuro y la evolucion del QIC.Se desarrollo un nuevo metodo de reconstruccion de precipitacion de alta resolucion (~ 1 km2 y 10 dias calendarios) que genero datos que mejoran la informacion sobre la varaible precipitacion en terrenos complejos y confirma que la precipitacion local sobre los Andes centrales depende en gran medida de los forzamientos regionales. Esta relacion se cuantifico mediante un modelo lineal que relaciona la precipitacion local en QIC con la precipitacion regional (datos de la media de la precipitacion usando 9 estaciones meteorologicas in situ que rodean el QIC). Ademas, se construyo un modelo multi-lineal empirico de reduccion de escala estadistica (ESD) para cuantificar la asociacion entre la precipitacion regional y los parametros atmosfericos a gran escala. Luego, los modelos lineal y multi-lineal se usaron para calcular la precipitacion futura en QIC tomando usando parametros climaticos a gran escala (viento zonal y meridional a 500 hPa y omega a 700 hPa) de las simulaciones de los modelos CMIP5 para los escenarios historico, RCP4.5 y RCP8.5, a lo largo del siglo XXI. Los resultados no muestran ningun cambio futuro importante para la precipitacion de QIC independientemente a la seleccion de los escenarios. Asi, que cambios en la fase de la variable precipitacion (nieve / lluvia / mezcla) probablemente son dependientes del incremento de la temperatura, lo cual sera un factor importante para el futuro balance de masa neto de QIC.Las proyecciones futuras de la temperatura del aire (Ta) y la altitud de la linea de equilibrio (ELA) en la cima de QIC se obtuvieron utilizando las simulaciones de los modelos CMIP5; con el ELA derivado empiricamente a traves de su asociacion lineal con la altura del nivel de congelacion (FLH). Los resultados muestran que Ta en QIC aumentara entre 0.25 y 0.57 ºC /decada, lo que resultara en un calentamiento de 2.4ºC y 5.4ºC en la cumbre QIC para fines del siglo XXI para los escenarios RCP4.5 y RCP8.5, respectivamente. El valor critico de Ta = -1ºC, umbral de la fase de precipitacion indicando que dicha variable comenzara a cambiar de solido a liquido y cada vez resultara en precipitaciones mixtas, alcanzara la cumbre de QIC alrededor de 2070 para el escenario RCP8.5.Con base en el analisis de las futuras proyecciones de ELA, la contribucion del efecto de calentamiento dependiente de la elevacion (EDW) al calentamiento sobre el QIC se cuantifica e indica que EDW agrega alrededor de 7.6% y 9.9%, para RCP4.5 y RCP8.5, respectivamente, de aumento adicional de ELA por decada. Finalmente, las proyecciones de ELA en el escenario de altas emisiones aumentaran continuamente, produciendo un balance de masa cada vez mas negativo del QIC, acelerando asi el retroceso de la capa de hielo. Se estima que a partir del 2055, para el escenario RCP8.5, el ELA estara ubicado en la cumbre de QIC o por encima de ella, con lo que la capa de hielo se ubicaria por completo sobre la zona de ablacion, lo que llevaria a la desaparicion completa de la capa de hielo.
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