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A Multispecies Statistical Catch-at-age (MSSCAA) Model for a Mid-Atlantic Species Complex.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	A Multispecies Statistical Catch-at-age (MSSCAA) Model for a Mid-Atlantic Species Complex./
Author:	McNamee, Jason Earl.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2018,
Description:	325 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-02, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International80-02B.
Subject:	Biological oceanography. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10845080
ISBN:	9780438262294

A Multispecies Statistical Catch-at-age (MSSCAA) Model for a Mid-Atlantic Species Complex.
McNamee, Jason Earl.

A Multispecies Statistical Catch-at-age (MSSCAA) Model for a Mid-Atlantic Species Complex. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2018 - 325 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-02, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Rhode Island, 2018.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Manuscript 1: Predation can be the largest source of mortality for fish species and is therefore a critically important process to consider when studying the dynamics of marine fish populations. However, the predation rate is difficult to measure and quantify. Traditionally, population models have either quantified predation externally or have used a general and fixed natural mortality level. To develop a new perspective on the predation component of natural mortality, and extend recent work, a multispecies statistical catch-at-age assessment model (MSSCAA) for a mid-Atlantic species complex is created. The model includes striped bass (Morone saxatilis), Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), bluefish ( Pomatomus saltatrix), weakfish (Cynoscion regalis), and scup (Stenotomus chrysops). The model was fit to commercial and recreational catch, survey, and diet data from 1985-2012. The model generated time and age varying natural mortality estimates, and allowed for the calculation of species-specific consumption estimates. Predation mortality increased on menhaden at all ages through the timeseries, peaking in the early and mid-2000s, and then declined. Predation mortality for scup was most notable on the first age class, peaked in the late 1990s and remained high for the remainder of the timeseries. The MSSCAA model performed close to the existing single-species models used for management and better than the multispecies virtual population analysis previously used for these species. The MSSCAA model provided a different view of some important biological information than did the single-species versions of the population models developed for comparisons, in particular with regard to fishing mortality, which was higher for menhaden. Manuscript 2: As multispecies modeling tools are developed, there is a need to use the parameters generated by these multispecies analytical models to project the populations forward in time in an ecosystem context. A multispecies statistical catch-at-age model was developed for a mid-Atlantic suite of species including two prey populations (Atlantic menhaden and scup) and three top predators (Atlantic striped bass, bluefish, and weakfish). This model and its output were used as the basis for projecting the populations simultaneously into the future under different assumptions. Under all scenarios investigated in the long-term projections, equilibrium levels were achieved by all of the species in the ecosystem. The assumptions going in to the projections were tested and indicated that natural mortality and recruitment are the most important considerations in the suite of assumptions tested. The projections also offer a different view of the population dynamics of the system when factoring in predation mortality. The standard constant natural mortality (M) approach to projections produces more optimistic outcomes than when the time and age-varying M is accounted for in the projection. This finding shows that accounting for additional dynamics in the ecosystem can add value to the current management process by giving managers a better sense of the structural uncertainty that exists around the various assumptions being made. If time and age-varying natural mortality is the correct state of nature, this should be accounted for in the management action being undertaken. Manuscript 3: Empirical information was examined to test for prey-dependent effects between the available biomass of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrranus) on the striped bass ( Morone saxatailis) population. The data indicated there may be a link between decreased consumption of menhaden by striped bass and increased natural mortality in the striped bass population. The investigation was extended to look at the impacts that this dynamic has on the two populations by programming the prey-dependent mortality effect into a multispecies estimation model. The parameters from the estimation model were then used to project the population to examine trade-offs that occur under a set of simple management strategies. The trade-offs were found to be important and indicate that there is an interaction between fishing mortality (F) and natural mortality ( M) in both the medium and long-term projections. A main finding was that under a no-menhaden fishing scenario, the management outcomes were better for striped bass. This was true under different F strategies for striped bass, as the decreased natural mortality offset F. It is important to note that these management scenarios were developed to illustrate trade-offs and are not offered as actual management recommendations. Analyses like these can offer important information to managers by way of giving them more information to consider when developing measures that attempt to meet goals, as fishing impacts on one population can affect the attainment of goals on other populations.

ISBN: 9780438262294Subjects--Topical Terms:

2122748
Biological oceanography.

A Multispecies Statistical Catch-at-age (MSSCAA) Model for a Mid-Atlantic Species Complex.
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520 $a Manuscript 1: Predation can be the largest source of mortality for fish species and is therefore a critically important process to consider when studying the dynamics of marine fish populations. However, the predation rate is difficult to measure and quantify. Traditionally, population models have either quantified predation externally or have used a general and fixed natural mortality level. To develop a new perspective on the predation component of natural mortality, and extend recent work, a multispecies statistical catch-at-age assessment model (MSSCAA) for a mid-Atlantic species complex is created. The model includes striped bass (Morone saxatilis), Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), bluefish ( Pomatomus saltatrix), weakfish (Cynoscion regalis), and scup (Stenotomus chrysops). The model was fit to commercial and recreational catch, survey, and diet data from 1985-2012. The model generated time and age varying natural mortality estimates, and allowed for the calculation of species-specific consumption estimates. Predation mortality increased on menhaden at all ages through the timeseries, peaking in the early and mid-2000s, and then declined. Predation mortality for scup was most notable on the first age class, peaked in the late 1990s and remained high for the remainder of the timeseries. The MSSCAA model performed close to the existing single-species models used for management and better than the multispecies virtual population analysis previously used for these species. The MSSCAA model provided a different view of some important biological information than did the single-species versions of the population models developed for comparisons, in particular with regard to fishing mortality, which was higher for menhaden. Manuscript 2: As multispecies modeling tools are developed, there is a need to use the parameters generated by these multispecies analytical models to project the populations forward in time in an ecosystem context. A multispecies statistical catch-at-age model was developed for a mid-Atlantic suite of species including two prey populations (Atlantic menhaden and scup) and three top predators (Atlantic striped bass, bluefish, and weakfish). This model and its output were used as the basis for projecting the populations simultaneously into the future under different assumptions. Under all scenarios investigated in the long-term projections, equilibrium levels were achieved by all of the species in the ecosystem. The assumptions going in to the projections were tested and indicated that natural mortality and recruitment are the most important considerations in the suite of assumptions tested. The projections also offer a different view of the population dynamics of the system when factoring in predation mortality. The standard constant natural mortality (M) approach to projections produces more optimistic outcomes than when the time and age-varying M is accounted for in the projection. This finding shows that accounting for additional dynamics in the ecosystem can add value to the current management process by giving managers a better sense of the structural uncertainty that exists around the various assumptions being made. If time and age-varying natural mortality is the correct state of nature, this should be accounted for in the management action being undertaken. Manuscript 3: Empirical information was examined to test for prey-dependent effects between the available biomass of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrranus) on the striped bass ( Morone saxatailis) population. The data indicated there may be a link between decreased consumption of menhaden by striped bass and increased natural mortality in the striped bass population. The investigation was extended to look at the impacts that this dynamic has on the two populations by programming the prey-dependent mortality effect into a multispecies estimation model. The parameters from the estimation model were then used to project the population to examine trade-offs that occur under a set of simple management strategies. The trade-offs were found to be important and indicate that there is an interaction between fishing mortality (F) and natural mortality ( M) in both the medium and long-term projections. A main finding was that under a no-menhaden fishing scenario, the management outcomes were better for striped bass. This was true under different F strategies for striped bass, as the decreased natural mortality offset F. It is important to note that these management scenarios were developed to illustrate trade-offs and are not offered as actual management recommendations. Analyses like these can offer important information to managers by way of giving them more information to consider when developing measures that attempt to meet goals, as fishing impacts on one population can affect the attainment of goals on other populations.
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