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Forecasting short-run fed cattle mar...

Bacon, Kevin Joseph.

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Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings./
作者:	Bacon, Kevin Joseph.
出版者:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 1995,
面頁冊數:	183 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 57-02, Section: A, page: 7840.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International57-02A.
標題:	Agricultural economics. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9618374

Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings.
Bacon, Kevin Joseph.

Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 1995 - 183 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 57-02, Section: A, page: 7840.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Oklahoma State University, 1995.

Scope and method of study. The USDA monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report provides significant market information to all stages of the cattle industry. Because this information has an impact on the market, many efforts have been made to predict it prior to its release. A key question has been if a more comprehensive data set were available, could more accurate predictions of the information in this report be completed in a timely manner. The first part of this effort uses time series forecasting methods to examine models using both public and private information to forecast monthly fed cattle marketings. The public information model uses data for current and past releases of the COF. The private information model consists of daily pen level data for over eighty feedlots. Based on the private data set, the expected marketing flows of current cattle inventories are projected using a feedlot simulation model. These projected flows are then used to extend forecast of the marketings component beyond the current report. The projected marketing flows were also used to develop a quantitative measure of showlist. Showlist has been defined by the industry as the volume of fed cattle that are ready to be marketed at a given point in time. The final part of the study compares the price impacts of showlist versus federally inspected slaughter.Subjects--Topical Terms:

3172150
Agricultural economics.

Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings.
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100 1 $a Bacon, Kevin Joseph. $3 3354183
245 1 0 $a Forecasting short-run fed cattle marketings.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 1995
300 $a 183 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 57-02, Section: A, page: 7840.
500 $a Adviser: James N. Trapp.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Oklahoma State University, 1995.
520 $a Scope and method of study. The USDA monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report provides significant market information to all stages of the cattle industry. Because this information has an impact on the market, many efforts have been made to predict it prior to its release. A key question has been if a more comprehensive data set were available, could more accurate predictions of the information in this report be completed in a timely manner. The first part of this effort uses time series forecasting methods to examine models using both public and private information to forecast monthly fed cattle marketings. The public information model uses data for current and past releases of the COF. The private information model consists of daily pen level data for over eighty feedlots. Based on the private data set, the expected marketing flows of current cattle inventories are projected using a feedlot simulation model. These projected flows are then used to extend forecast of the marketings component beyond the current report. The projected marketing flows were also used to develop a quantitative measure of showlist. Showlist has been defined by the industry as the volume of fed cattle that are ready to be marketed at a given point in time. The final part of the study compares the price impacts of showlist versus federally inspected slaughter.
520 $a Findings and conclusions. Augmenting the public data set with the private data set does yield improved predictions of marketings. The simulation model does provide a mechanism for projecting feedlot inventories and marketing flows. This allowed the development of a showlist proxy variable consistent with the industry's interpretation. In addition, showlist was shown to have a larger impact on price predictions than federally inspected slaughter.
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