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Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices,...

Ramsey, Austin Ford.

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Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk./
Author:	Ramsey, Austin Ford.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2017,
Description:	105 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-05(E), Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International79-05A(E).
Subject:	Agricultural economics. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10708394
ISBN:	9780355458794

Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk.
Ramsey, Austin Ford.

Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2017 - 105 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-05(E), Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--North Carolina State University, 2017.

This dissertation is composed of essays that explore aspects of agricultural policy or farmstructure. At this time, the major feature of agricultural policy in the United States is the federal crop insurance program. This program provides multiple forms of subsidized crop insurance to American farmers. The first two-thirds of the dissertation deal with statistical and econometric methods for pricing insurance policies with an eye towards obtaining more accurate premium rates. The last study considers the agricultural sector in Japan and permanent exit of farmers from the agricultural enterprise. As conclusions are reached by way of observed data, the essays in this dissertation are empirical.

ISBN: 9780355458794Subjects--Topical Terms:

3172150
Agricultural economics.

Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk.
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100 1 $a Ramsey, Austin Ford. $3 3349595
245 1 0 $a Empirical Studies in Policy, Prices, and Risk.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2017
300 $a 105 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-05(E), Section: A.
500 $a Advisers: Barry Goodwin; Sujit Ghosh.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--North Carolina State University, 2017.
520 $a This dissertation is composed of essays that explore aspects of agricultural policy or farmstructure. At this time, the major feature of agricultural policy in the United States is the federal crop insurance program. This program provides multiple forms of subsidized crop insurance to American farmers. The first two-thirds of the dissertation deal with statistical and econometric methods for pricing insurance policies with an eye towards obtaining more accurate premium rates. The last study considers the agricultural sector in Japan and permanent exit of farmers from the agricultural enterprise. As conclusions are reached by way of observed data, the essays in this dissertation are empirical.
520 $a The first essay examines the effects of relaxed actuarial assumptions on premium rates for revenue insurance policies offered through the federal crop insurance program. An important component of revenue insurance is dependence between the crop yield observed in a year and the relative price of the crop at harvest time. Yields are measured at the county level while prices are obtained from trading of futures contracts at the ChicagoMercantile Exchange. Yield and price are combined to forma distribution of revenue that is used to generate insurance premium rates. In practice, the RiskManagement Agency of the United States Department of Agriculture makes several assumptions in obtaining the distribution of revenue. Correlation between yields and prices is assumed to be fixed across all counties within a state. Furthermore, the dependence relationship is assumed to be adequately characterized by a Gaussian copula. In this application, the bivariate copula model is allowed to vary across counties and selected according to fit criteria. The effect of this increased flexibility on the price of insurance is then determined.
520 $a The second essay uses copula methods to price a crop insurance supplement with losses determined by more than two variables. Private insurers, not able to compete on price for policies in the federal program, recently began offering privately sold supplemental policies. These policies typically extend one or more aspects of the policies sold in the federal program. Supplemental policies that provide additional price coverage are one such category. This paper develops a rating methodology for crop insurance policies that pay out on the maximum or average price observed over an interval. Because the loss is a function of multiple stochastic prices, multivariate copula methods are utilized to construct a joint distribution for the underlying prices. Results indicate important dependencies between prices and yields and in the serial behavior of prices.
520 $a The final essay examines the factors affecting exits from farming in Japan. Off-farmemployment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farmexit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. This essay considers farmexits in the context of Japanese agriculture, which is characterized by high rates of farmexit, land abandonment, and part-time farmwork. Based on data from the Japanese Census of Agriculture in 2000 and 2005, the decision to exit farming is shown to be related to off-farmincome as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off-farmwork. Off-farmemployment with income less than farmincome is most strongly associated with continued farmoperations. Off-farmwork where the farmer is self-employed is associated with accelerated exits. Comparison is made between two models of farmexits: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform adequately in terms of predicting exit rates across the prefectures of Japan, although minor preference is given to the Poisson.
590 $a School code: 0155.
650 4 $a Agricultural economics. $3 3172150
650 4 $a Economics. $3 517137
690 $a 0503
690 $a 0501
710 2 $a North Carolina State University. $b Economics. $3 2093784
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 79-05A(E).
790 $a 0155
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2017
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10708394