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Conservation ecology of endemic plan...

Krause, Crystal M.

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Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts./
Author:	Krause, Crystal M.
Description:	141 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 71-10, Section: B, page: 5892.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International71-10B.
Subject:	Ecology. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3425574
ISBN:	9781124259697

Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts.
Krause, Crystal M.

Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts. - 141 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 71-10, Section: B, page: 5892.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Northern Arizona University, 2010.

The Colorado Plateau region supports one of the highest levels of endemism in the U.S. Approximately 10% of the plant species are estimated to be endemic. Many of these species are either federally listed as endangered or rare and of those species some find refuge in the protected areas of the Colorado Plateau. Understanding the dynamics of climate change and other disturbances on species range is important to protect the endemic species that currently occupy protected areas. Currently the available tools for understanding climate change impacts on biodiversity use output from climate change models as input to species distribution models (SDM). The SDM interprets present distribution data of a species and trains the model to predict the climatic conditions in which the species may exist. The model then uses the current climatic tolerances of species to infer possible changes in their distribution due to alterations in climate. Species distribution modeling was performed for 239 endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau. Three climate change models and 11 scenarios were used to project climate into the future at three time periods, 2010--2039, 2040--2069 and 2070--2099. Three dispersal mechanisms were also used, no dispersal, full dispersal and a connected dispersal. Connected dispersal, (suitable habitat pixels with a neighbor relationship), is the most realistic model of dispersal. The research questions were (1) how will future predicted climate change impact the distribution of Colorado Plateau endemic plants? (2) How does dispersal impact the abilities of endemics to move with predicted climate change? (3) Are certain groups of plants at more risk of range shift and extinction? (4) Will endemic plants find suitable habitat in protected areas? And if so, will they move in and out of protected areas in the future?

ISBN: 9781124259697Subjects--Topical Terms:

516476
Ecology.

Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts.
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100 1 $a Krause, Crystal M. $3 3186458
245 1 0 $a Conservation ecology of endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau: Climate change impacts on range shifts.
300 $a 141 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 71-10, Section: B, page: 5892.
500 $a Includes supplementary digital materials.
500 $a Adviser: Neil Cobb.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Northern Arizona University, 2010.
520 $a The Colorado Plateau region supports one of the highest levels of endemism in the U.S. Approximately 10% of the plant species are estimated to be endemic. Many of these species are either federally listed as endangered or rare and of those species some find refuge in the protected areas of the Colorado Plateau. Understanding the dynamics of climate change and other disturbances on species range is important to protect the endemic species that currently occupy protected areas. Currently the available tools for understanding climate change impacts on biodiversity use output from climate change models as input to species distribution models (SDM). The SDM interprets present distribution data of a species and trains the model to predict the climatic conditions in which the species may exist. The model then uses the current climatic tolerances of species to infer possible changes in their distribution due to alterations in climate. Species distribution modeling was performed for 239 endemic plants of the Colorado Plateau. Three climate change models and 11 scenarios were used to project climate into the future at three time periods, 2010--2039, 2040--2069 and 2070--2099. Three dispersal mechanisms were also used, no dispersal, full dispersal and a connected dispersal. Connected dispersal, (suitable habitat pixels with a neighbor relationship), is the most realistic model of dispersal. The research questions were (1) how will future predicted climate change impact the distribution of Colorado Plateau endemic plants? (2) How does dispersal impact the abilities of endemics to move with predicted climate change? (3) Are certain groups of plants at more risk of range shift and extinction? (4) Will endemic plants find suitable habitat in protected areas? And if so, will they move in and out of protected areas in the future?
520 $a The results predict a decrease in suitable habitat for many of the species. Dispersal abilities significantly change range shift and extinction risks. Under no dispersal 40--65% of endemic are predicted to experience range loss, with 2--25% of plants at the highest extinction risk. Under full dispersal range gains are predicted between 20--100% with the highest extinction risk for up to 5% of the taxa. Further analysis of potential movement between protected areas and other federally managed land indicates many species could have suitable habitat in different protected areas in the future. Management strategies for these rare plants will need to focus on allowing movement to more suitable habitat, including assisted migration and relocation.
590 $a School code: 0391.
650 4 $a Ecology. $3 516476
650 4 $a Conservation biology. $3 535736
690 $a 0329
690 $a 0408
710 2 $a Northern Arizona University. $3 783744
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 71-10B.
790 $a 0391
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2010
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3425574