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Uncertainty assessments of demograph...

Alkema, Leontine.

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Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections./
作者:	Alkema, Leontine.
面頁冊數:	121 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-01, Section: B, page: 3750.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International70-01B.
標題:	Statistics. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3345574
ISBN:	9781109001594

Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections.
Alkema, Leontine.

Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections. - 121 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-01, Section: B, page: 3750.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2008.

This research is directed towards the development of methodology to estimate and project HIV prevalence in countries where the epidemic impacts the entire population, and to develop methodology to estimate and project the total fertility rate in a global setting. We assess the uncertainty in the estimates as well as in the projections.

ISBN: 9781109001594Subjects--Topical Terms:

517247
Statistics.

Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-01, Section: B, page: 3750.
500 $a Adviser: Adrian E. Raftery.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2008.
520 $a This research is directed towards the development of methodology to estimate and project HIV prevalence in countries where the epidemic impacts the entire population, and to develop methodology to estimate and project the total fertility rate in a global setting. We assess the uncertainty in the estimates as well as in the projections.
520 $a For estimation and projection of HIV prevalence, we use a deterministic model that underlies the bi-annual estimates and projections by UNAIDS. The data on HIV prevalence consist of time series of HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending a small number of antenatal clinics and, for some countries, a more recent household survey of prevalence carried out as part of the Demographic and Health Survey. We use Bayesian melding to synthesize the data sources and to assess the uncertainty in both the inputs and outputs of the epidemiological model. We develop a general calibration method to adjust upward bias in antenatal clinic prevalence for countries without population-based surveys.
520 $a We estimate the total fertility rate for several countries in western Africa, which have issues with data quality and quantity. Trajectories of the total fertility rate are constructed using a local smoother and an uncertainty assessment is carried out with the weighted likelihood bootstrap. The association between bias and difference in error variance between observations is examined with a linear regression model, using the estimates by the United Nations as unbiased estimates of the total fertility rate. We show that by taking into account data quality, estimates and uncertainty assessment improve in terms of calibration and sharpness.
520 $a Lastly, we construct probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries in the world in which the total fertility rate is currently above replacement. Our methodology builds on the methodology used by the United Nations Population Division, projecting that the total fertility rate will decline towards replacement fertility. We propose a time series model for deriving country-specific projections, in which the pace of the fertility decline is decomposed into a systematic decline with distortion terms added to it. The pace of the systematic decline in total fertility rate is modeled as a function of its level, based on the UN methodology. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the decline function.
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650 4 $a Demography. $3 614991
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