東華大學圖書館 |

語系: 繁體中文

說明(常見問題)

回圖書館首頁

手機版館藏查詢

登入

回首頁

切換: 標籤 | MARC模式 | ISBD

Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows...

Harburger, Aleeza M.

FindBook

Google Book

Amazon

博客來

Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona./
作者:	Harburger, Aleeza M.
面頁冊數:	82 p.
附註:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 52-06.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International52-06(E).
標題:	Geology. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=1554176
ISBN:	9781303840524

Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona.
Harburger, Aleeza M.

Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona. - 82 p.

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 52-06.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of South Florida, 2014.

This item is not available from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses.

This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.

ISBN: 9781303840524Subjects--Topical Terms:

516570
Geology.

Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona.
LDR:02702nmm a2200313 4500 001 2057799
005 20150622091116.5
008 170521s2014 ||||||||||||||||| ||eng d
020 $a 9781303840524
035 $a (MiAaPQ)AAI1554176
035 $a AAI1554176
040 $a MiAaPQ $c MiAaPQ
100 1 $a Harburger, Aleeza M. $3 3171682
245 1 0 $a Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows: A Hazard Assessment for the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona.
300 $a 82 p.
500 $a Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 52-06.
500 $a Adviser: Charles B. Connor.
502 $a Thesis (M.S.)--University of South Florida, 2014.
506 $a This item is not available from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.
590 $a School code: 0206.
650 4 $a Geology. $3 516570
650 4 $a Land Use Planning. $3 1673684
650 4 $a Statistics. $3 517247
690 $a 0372
690 $a 0536
690 $a 0463
710 2 $a University of South Florida. $b Geology. $3 2101955
773 0 $t Masters Abstracts International $g 52-06(E).
790 $a 0206
791 $a M.S.
792 $a 2014
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=1554176