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Is the IT revolution over? An asset...

Ward, Colin.

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Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view./
作者:	Ward, Colin.
面頁冊數:	77 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 75-09(E), Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International75-09A(E).
標題:	Economics, Finance. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3622133
ISBN:	9781303937170

Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view.
Ward, Colin.

Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view. - 77 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 75-09(E), Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Pennsylvania, 2014.

I develop a new method that puts structure on financial market data to forecast economic outcomes. I apply it to study the IT sector's transition to its long-run share in the US economy, along with its implications for future growth. Future average annual productivity growth is predicted to fall to 52bps from the 87bps recorded over 1974--2012, due to intensifying IT sector competition and decreasing returns to employing IT. My median estimate indicates the transition ends in 2033. I estimate these numbers by building an asset pricing model that endogenously links economy-wide growth to IT sector innovation governed by the sector's market valuation, and by calibrating it to match historical data on factor shares, price-dividend ratios, growth rates, and discount rates. Consistent with this link, I show empirically that the IT sector's price-dividend ratio univariately explains nearly half of the variation in future productivity growth.

ISBN: 9781303937170Subjects--Topical Terms:

626650
Economics, Finance.

Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view.
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520 $a I develop a new method that puts structure on financial market data to forecast economic outcomes. I apply it to study the IT sector's transition to its long-run share in the US economy, along with its implications for future growth. Future average annual productivity growth is predicted to fall to 52bps from the 87bps recorded over 1974--2012, due to intensifying IT sector competition and decreasing returns to employing IT. My median estimate indicates the transition ends in 2033. I estimate these numbers by building an asset pricing model that endogenously links economy-wide growth to IT sector innovation governed by the sector's market valuation, and by calibrating it to match historical data on factor shares, price-dividend ratios, growth rates, and discount rates. Consistent with this link, I show empirically that the IT sector's price-dividend ratio univariately explains nearly half of the variation in future productivity growth.
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