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Precautionary risk management = dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society /

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Precautionary risk management/ Mark Jablonowski.
其他題名:	dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society /
作者:	Jablonowski, Mark,
出版者:	Basingstoke [England] ;Palgrave Macmillan, : 2006.,
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (xiii, 168 p.) :ill.
內容註:	Cover -- Contents -- List of Tables and Figures -- Preface: A World of Hazards -- Acknowledgements -- 1 Statistical Risk and its Treatment -- 1.1 Economic optimization and cost/benefit analysis -- 1.2 The nature of risk -- 1.3 Using expected values -- 1.4 Determining probabilities from data -- 1.5 Extending the credibility of statistical results -- 1.6 Uncertainty due to knowledge imperfections -- 1.7 Generalized uncertainty and the "10 percent rule" -- 2 The ABC's of High-Stakes Decisions -- 2.1 The "iceberg" model of risk -- 2.2 Why expected value decision-making doesn't work -- 2.3 Decisions when probabilities are unknown, or irrelevant -- 2.4 The dilemma of precaution -- 2.5 Can precaution make things worse? -- 2.6 Modifying expected values for imperfect knowledge -- 2.7 Utility and risk aversion -- 2.8 Where does insurance fit in? -- 2.9 Fatalism, by default? -- 3 Practical Precaution -- 3.1 Is everything risky? -- 3.2 Defining the "precautionary region" -- 3.3 Integrating measurement uncertainty -- 3.4 Taking "reasonable" precautions -- 3.5 Protecting human life -- 3.6 The importance of proper metrics -- 3.7 Reasonable precautions and human evolution -- 3.8 Facing the limits of practicality -- 4 Precaution and Progress: Identifying Alternatives -- 4.1 A wider view of planning -- 4.2 Assessing alternatives -- 4.3 An illustrative example -- 4.4 Natural vs. man-made risk -- 4.5 Shifting the burden of proof -- 4.6 Alternatives assessment vs. post-fact risk management -- 4.7 Post-fact risk management and the status quo -- 4.8 The community commitment -- 5 Public Policy and the Rise of Precautionary Regulation -- 5.1 The status of precautionary regulation -- 5.2 Strict liability and man-made perils -- 5.3 Precautionary regulation and free enterprise -- 6 Science and Precaution -- 6.1 More science, not less -- 6.2 Probability, decision and the science of risk assessment -- 6.3 Exploratory modeling -- 6.4 Science and objectivity -- 6.5 Precaution and commerce -- 6.6 The developing science of precaution -- 7 Communicating about Risk -- 7.1 The meaning(s) of the word "risk" -- 7.2 The lay perception of risk -- 7.3 Effective risk communication -- 7.4 The feedback process -- 8 The Future of Risk -- 8.1 Is risk increasing? -- 8.2 Cost/benefit revisited -- 8.3 Reconciling fatalism and precaution -- 8.4 Shaping the future -- 8.5 Can we get there from here? -- Appendix A: A Working Model of Precaution -- A.1 An introduction to fuzzy sets -- A.2 Formalizing linguistic rules using fuzzy sets -- A.3 Fuzzy measurement -- A.4 Building a working model -- A.5 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and human reasoning -- A.6 Using the model -- Appendix B: The Precautionary Risk Manager's Bookshelf -- Appendix C: A Concise Statement of the "Precautionary Principle" -- Appendix D: A Glossary of High-Stakes Risk Management -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R --T$8243.
標題:	Risk management. -
電子資源:	http://link.springer.com/10.1057/9780230627659An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click for information
ISBN:	9780230627659 (electronic bk.)

Precautionary risk management = dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society /
Jablonowski, Mark,1955-

Precautionary risk managementdealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society /[electronic resource] :Mark Jablonowski. - Basingstoke [England] ;Palgrave Macmillan,2006. - 1 online resource (xiii, 168 p.) :ill.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Cover -- Contents -- List of Tables and Figures -- Preface: A World of Hazards -- Acknowledgements -- 1 Statistical Risk and its Treatment -- 1.1 Economic optimization and cost/benefit analysis -- 1.2 The nature of risk -- 1.3 Using expected values -- 1.4 Determining probabilities from data -- 1.5 Extending the credibility of statistical results -- 1.6 Uncertainty due to knowledge imperfections -- 1.7 Generalized uncertainty and the "10 percent rule" -- 2 The ABC's of High-Stakes Decisions -- 2.1 The "iceberg" model of risk -- 2.2 Why expected value decision-making doesn't work -- 2.3 Decisions when probabilities are unknown, or irrelevant -- 2.4 The dilemma of precaution -- 2.5 Can precaution make things worse? -- 2.6 Modifying expected values for imperfect knowledge -- 2.7 Utility and risk aversion -- 2.8 Where does insurance fit in? -- 2.9 Fatalism, by default? -- 3 Practical Precaution -- 3.1 Is everything risky? -- 3.2 Defining the "precautionary region" -- 3.3 Integrating measurement uncertainty -- 3.4 Taking "reasonable" precautions -- 3.5 Protecting human life -- 3.6 The importance of proper metrics -- 3.7 Reasonable precautions and human evolution -- 3.8 Facing the limits of practicality -- 4 Precaution and Progress: Identifying Alternatives -- 4.1 A wider view of planning -- 4.2 Assessing alternatives -- 4.3 An illustrative example -- 4.4 Natural vs. man-made risk -- 4.5 Shifting the burden of proof -- 4.6 Alternatives assessment vs. post-fact risk management -- 4.7 Post-fact risk management and the status quo -- 4.8 The community commitment -- 5 Public Policy and the Rise of Precautionary Regulation -- 5.1 The status of precautionary regulation -- 5.2 Strict liability and man-made perils -- 5.3 Precautionary regulation and free enterprise -- 6 Science and Precaution -- 6.1 More science, not less -- 6.2 Probability, decision and the science of risk assessment -- 6.3 Exploratory modeling -- 6.4 Science and objectivity -- 6.5 Precaution and commerce -- 6.6 The developing science of precaution -- 7 Communicating about Risk -- 7.1 The meaning(s) of the word "risk" -- 7.2 The lay perception of risk -- 7.3 Effective risk communication -- 7.4 The feedback process -- 8 The Future of Risk -- 8.1 Is risk increasing? -- 8.2 Cost/benefit revisited -- 8.3 Reconciling fatalism and precaution -- 8.4 Shaping the future -- 8.5 Can we get there from here? -- Appendix A: A Working Model of Precaution -- A.1 An introduction to fuzzy sets -- A.2 Formalizing linguistic rules using fuzzy sets -- A.3 Fuzzy measurement -- A.4 Building a working model -- A.5 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and human reasoning -- A.6 Using the model -- Appendix B: The Precautionary Risk Manager's Bookshelf -- Appendix C: A Concise Statement of the "Precautionary Principle" -- Appendix D: A Glossary of High-Stakes Risk Management -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R --T$8243.

High-stakes, catastrophic, risk potentials are by their very nature terminal and irreversible: We don't get a second-chance. Suggestions that we treat these risks as we do the "statistical" risks we face, using simple cost/ benefit analyses based on averages, just don't make sense. The problem with catastrophe is that, in the long run, there may be no long run. The only sensible approaches to catastrophic risks remain precautionary avoidance, and fatalistic acceptance ("why worry?"). Precautionary avoidance brings with it its own set of issues. How do we make progress, without exposing ourselves to precautionary dilemmas ("doomed if we do, doomed if we don't")? We suggest here that avoidance of precautionary dilemmas, via alternatives assessment and other strategies, should be the driving force behind risk-based science. To the extent some degree of fatalism may be inescapable, suggestions are offered for basing this response on reasoned acceptance rather than mere acquiescence.

ISBN: 9780230627659 (electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1057/9780230627659doi

Source: EBL293490Ebook Libraryhttp://www.eblib.comSubjects--Topical Terms:

540477
Risk management.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

542853
Electronic books.

LC Class. No.: HD61 / .J32 2006eb

Dewey Class. No.: 658.15/5

Precautionary risk management = dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society /
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