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People make bad choices with high co...

Zarow, Gregory John.

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People make bad choices with high confidence.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	People make bad choices with high confidence./
作者:	Zarow, Gregory John.
面頁冊數:	130 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International61-06B.
標題:	Psychology, Cognitive. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9975876
ISBN:	0599815590

People make bad choices with high confidence.
Zarow, Gregory John.

People make bad choices with high confidence. - 130 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000.

Static models of choice based on Economic Utility or Subjective Expected Utility predict that people will always choose the better of two side-by-side items if it is unambiguously clear which of the two items is more likely to maximize Expected Utility.

ISBN: 0599815590Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017810
Psychology, Cognitive.

People make bad choices with high confidence.
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245 1 0 $a People make bad choices with high confidence.
300 $a 130 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.
500 $a Chair: John T. Wixted.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000.
520 $a Static models of choice based on Economic Utility or Subjective Expected Utility predict that people will always choose the better of two side-by-side items if it is unambiguously clear which of the two items is more likely to maximize Expected Utility.
520 $a Within the framework of probabilistic iterative forced choice with feedback, the traditional Probability Learning paradigm, the present research defends the position that we robustly refuse to always take the better of two items even when extreme measures are taken to foster static maximization. Further, data are presented to defend the proposition that these bad choices are sometimes made with high confidence.
520 $a As participants in one of five experiments 347 subjects made 10 to 400 repeated choices. In Part I, Experiments I, II and III explored the effects on choice of making odds knowledge available or not available; the effect of experience; the effects of social pressure and choice justifiability; and the effects of stating the probable outcome of events with known probabilities. None of these manipulation was demonstrated sufficient to cause exclusive choice of the better item.
520 $a Contrary to predictions of mathematical models of trial-and-error which predict choice proportionate to either the objective or subjective odds, choice was proportionate to neither the objective odds nor the subjective odds. Further, making odds knowledge available to subjects made choice less representative of the odds.
520 $a In Part II, Experiments IV and V utilized response latency to validate a confidence measure taken simultaneously with choice and demonstrate further evidence that even when a better choice is equally available, people sometimes make choices that are unlikely to pay off. Further, these bad choices are sometimes made with high confidence, whether or not the odds are made available to the subjects.
520 $a As these data are consistent with the hypothesis that confidence in choice varies from trial-to-trial, a modified signal detection account is presented which predicts that choice and choice confidence will vary from trial-to-trial. Signal detection makes counterintuitive predications in choice, including bad choices and bad choices made with high confidence.
590 $a School code: 0033.
650 4 $a Psychology, Cognitive. $3 1017810
650 4 $a Psychology, Experimental. $3 517106
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710 2 0 $a University of California, San Diego. $3 1018093
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790 1 0 $a Wixted, John T., $e advisor
790 $a 0033
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2000
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