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A mathematical model for the geograp...

Freeman, Rebecca.

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A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel./
作者:	Freeman, Rebecca.
面頁冊數:	221 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-10, Section: B, page: 4624.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International63-10B.
標題:	Health Sciences, Public Health. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3068149
ISBN:	0493877002

A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel.
Freeman, Rebecca.

A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel. - 221 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-10, Section: B, page: 4624.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Johns Hopkins University, 2003.

This dissertation presents a simulation model to explore the geographic spread of infectious disease by air travel. By describing the potential geographic dispersion of cases of disease the results of these simulations may be useful as predictors of future epidemics. Such predictions provide information for public health decision-making concerning how and when infection control resources should be distributed.

ISBN: 0493877002Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017659
Health Sciences, Public Health.

A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel.
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245 1 0 $a A mathematical model for the geographic spread of infectious disease via air travel.
300 $a 221 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-10, Section: B, page: 4624.
500 $a Adviser: J. Hugh Ellis.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Johns Hopkins University, 2003.
520 $a This dissertation presents a simulation model to explore the geographic spread of infectious disease by air travel. By describing the potential geographic dispersion of cases of disease the results of these simulations may be useful as predictors of future epidemics. Such predictions provide information for public health decision-making concerning how and when infection control resources should be distributed.
520 $a Three case studies are presented. The first case study explores the spread of the next pandemic of influenza. The results suggest that if a virulent pandemic strain of influenza emerges, the geographic dispersion may exhibit less of the characteristic seasonal oscillation. The implication of this is that pandemic planners may need to consider the simultaneous onset of cases in both hemispheres. The second case study addressed the role of air travel during the annual expected influenza seasons. The model results showed a reasonable fit to available observed data for two cities, and a poor fit for a third. The results are preliminary and further research is required before any clear conclusions can be drawn. Based on these first results, changes in air travel volumes and patterns may need to be incorporated into influenza surveillance systems to provide additional time for disease control and prevention.
520 $a The final case study is an application of the model to smallpox. The preliminary findings suggest that knowledge of the spatial spread of smallpox cases may help allocate scarce control resources and target ring vaccination campaigns. The possibility that smallpox cases may spread through the transportation system in the even of a release is contentious and there is no scientific consensus. Scientific and public health experts do not agree on the likelihood of release, the virulence of the virus, population susceptibility and the efficacy of current vaccine formulations. It is also unclear to what degree stockpiled vaccinations remain viable. The contribution of this case study may be simply to bring the issue of smallpox dispersion through air travel into the public debate.
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