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A spatio-temporal modeling of Schist...

Liang, Song.

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A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China./
作者:	Liang, Song.
面頁冊數:	197 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-02, Section: B, page: 0687.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International65-02B.
標題:	Health Sciences, Public Health. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3121575

A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China.
Liang, Song.

A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China. - 197 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-02, Section: B, page: 0687.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2003.

The dissertation concerns site-specific characterization of schistosomiasis transmission with the object of designing local control strategies in endemic mountainous regions in Sichuan, China. A dynamic model, consisting a set of differential equations, is developed for the study of disease transmission in risk groups defined by residence and occupation. The model specifically incorporates temperature- and precipitation-dependent seasonality of infectious stages, snail population dynamics, and spatial and temporal heterogeneities associated with human water exposure specific to the local agriculture setting. The model is parameterized to encompass two types of information—those associated with the general biology of the parasite and its life cycle in the human and the snail, and those associated with directly measurable local features of disease status in the population and environment. Uncertainty and variability associated with model parameters are taken into account in the model through Monte Carlo simulation.Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017659
Health Sciences, Public Health.

A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China.
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245 1 0 $a A spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-02, Section: B, page: 0687.
500 $a Chair: Robert C. Spear.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2003.
520 $a The dissertation concerns site-specific characterization of schistosomiasis transmission with the object of designing local control strategies in endemic mountainous regions in Sichuan, China. A dynamic model, consisting a set of differential equations, is developed for the study of disease transmission in risk groups defined by residence and occupation. The model specifically incorporates temperature- and precipitation-dependent seasonality of infectious stages, snail population dynamics, and spatial and temporal heterogeneities associated with human water exposure specific to the local agriculture setting. The model is parameterized to encompass two types of information—those associated with the general biology of the parasite and its life cycle in the human and the snail, and those associated with directly measurable local features of disease status in the population and environment. Uncertainty and variability associated with model parameters are taken into account in the model through Monte Carlo simulation.
520 $a The dynamic model is then calibrated to data collected in endemic villages of southwestern Sichuan, with the object of reducing uncertainties associated with parameters sufficiently to allow the model to describe the local disease transmission and its principal determinants with relative confidence. In so doing, a Bayesian melding approach utilizing local observable epidemiologic data and expert opinion is used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that after calibration the parameter uncertainties are reduced substantially. The analysis of model parameters indicates that strong spatial and temporal heterogeneities of human behavior and environmental risks are associated with the local disease transmission.
520 $a The calibrated model is utilized for prediction of the effects of different intervention options. Simulations confirm a bimodal transmission pattern (for environmental risk—one in early summer and another in early fall; for infected snails—one in late summer and another in winter) in this area, corresponding to field observation. The control simulations indicate that selective chemotherapy on 20–30% of heavy infections in human hosts can achieve control effects equivalent to that from mass treatment with 80% coverage. The control effects can be further enhanced by focal snails control and/or egg control. The approach appears to be a useful method for designing optimal control strategies for endemic villages.
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