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The role of climate variability in o...

Pagano, Thomas Christopher.

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The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States./
作者:	Pagano, Thomas Christopher.
面頁冊數:	283 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-01, Section: B, page: 0170.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International66-01B.
標題:	Hydrology. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3162815
ISBN:	0496966707

The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States.
Pagano, Thomas Christopher.

The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States. - 283 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-01, Section: B, page: 0170.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Arizona, 2005.

The single greatest uncertainty in seasonal water supply forecasts is the amount of precipitation falling after the forecast issue date. There has been a long history of attempting to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into operational water supply forecasts. The skill of these precipitation forecasts remains low especially compared to highly confident snow-based streamflow forecasts. Early in the season (e.g., September--December), however, large-scale climate indices are the best available predictors of future water supplies. This dissertation suggests practical methods for issuing climate-based operational streamflow forecasts.

ISBN: 0496966707Subjects--Topical Terms:

545716
Hydrology.

The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States.
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245 1 4 $a The role of climate variability in operational water supply forecasting for the western United States.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 66-01, Section: B, page: 0170.
500 $a Adviser: Soroosh Sorooshian.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Arizona, 2005.
520 $a The single greatest uncertainty in seasonal water supply forecasts is the amount of precipitation falling after the forecast issue date. There has been a long history of attempting to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into operational water supply forecasts. The skill of these precipitation forecasts remains low especially compared to highly confident snow-based streamflow forecasts. Early in the season (e.g., September--December), however, large-scale climate indices are the best available predictors of future water supplies. This dissertation suggests practical methods for issuing climate-based operational streamflow forecasts.
520 $a This study also documents the existence of strong decadal trends in water supply forecast skill. Across the Western US, 1 April forecast skill peaked in the 1960--1970s and has been on the decline more recently. The high skill period was a very calm period in the Western US, with a near absence of extreme (wet or dry) spring precipitation events. In contrast, the period after 1980 has had the most variable, persistent, and skewed spring and summer streamflows in the modern record. Spring precipitation is also now more variable than it has been since at least the 1930s. This rise in spring precipitation variability in the Colorado/Rio Grande Basins and the Pacific Northwest is the likely cause behind the recent decline in water supply forecast skill.
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