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Political economic forecasting of fi...

Schroeder, Susan K.

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Political economic forecasting of financial crises (Hyman Minsky).

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Political economic forecasting of financial crises (Hyman Minsky)./
作者:	Schroeder, Susan K.
面頁冊數:	213 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-08, Section: A, page: 3087.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International65-08A.
標題:	Economics, General. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3144493
ISBN:	0496027352

Political economic forecasting of financial crises (Hyman Minsky).
Schroeder, Susan K.

Political economic forecasting of financial crises (Hyman Minsky). - 213 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-08, Section: A, page: 3087.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--New School University, 2004.

This dissertation provides a theoretical foundation for country risk assessment. It begins with a review of the history and methods of country risk assessment. An examination is provided as to why assessors have a poor track record in predicting financial crises. The conclusion is that there is no consensus as to the focus or theory of country risk assessment. A framework is then constructed for assessing the financial fragility or economic health of an economy, whether it be developed or developing market economy, with respect to the three Minskian regimes (hedged, speculative, and Ponzi). The framework is based upon extending the theory of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis to an open economy. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between the theoretical concepts and the data categories. Finally, the framework is applied to Korea and Thailand prior to the Asian crisis and to the present-day United States. One of the most important empirical results is that the Ponzi regime arrives prior to financial crisis. This implies that the Ponzi has two phases---the phase prior to crisis and the crisis phase itself. Another important result is that rate of return on speculative investment either slows or turns negative during the transition from the speculative regime to the Ponzi regime. The dissertation ends by drawing out the implications of its results for both earlier extensions of Minsky's analysis and for the field of country risk assessment. The main conclusion is that the framework presented in the dissertation has the potential to be posed as an alternative to current methods of country risk assessment.

ISBN: 0496027352Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017424
Economics, General.

Political economic forecasting of financial crises (Hyman Minsky).
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502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--New School University, 2004.
520 $a This dissertation provides a theoretical foundation for country risk assessment. It begins with a review of the history and methods of country risk assessment. An examination is provided as to why assessors have a poor track record in predicting financial crises. The conclusion is that there is no consensus as to the focus or theory of country risk assessment. A framework is then constructed for assessing the financial fragility or economic health of an economy, whether it be developed or developing market economy, with respect to the three Minskian regimes (hedged, speculative, and Ponzi). The framework is based upon extending the theory of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis to an open economy. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between the theoretical concepts and the data categories. Finally, the framework is applied to Korea and Thailand prior to the Asian crisis and to the present-day United States. One of the most important empirical results is that the Ponzi regime arrives prior to financial crisis. This implies that the Ponzi has two phases---the phase prior to crisis and the crisis phase itself. Another important result is that rate of return on speculative investment either slows or turns negative during the transition from the speculative regime to the Ponzi regime. The dissertation ends by drawing out the implications of its results for both earlier extensions of Minsky's analysis and for the field of country risk assessment. The main conclusion is that the framework presented in the dissertation has the potential to be posed as an alternative to current methods of country risk assessment.
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