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Long-range atmospheric predictability.

Reichler, Thomas Josef.

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Long-range atmospheric predictability.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Long-range atmospheric predictability./
作者:	Reichler, Thomas Josef.
面頁冊數:	261 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-11, Section: B, page: 5138.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International63-11B.
標題:	Environmental Sciences. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3071001
ISBN:	0493908498

Long-range atmospheric predictability.
Reichler, Thomas Josef.

Long-range atmospheric predictability. - 261 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-11, Section: B, page: 5138.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2003.

This study investigated the prospects and limits of global atmospheric predictability on the long range (beyond 2 weeks). Forecasting the atmosphere at this range is very challenging since elements of both weather and climate prediction enter the problem. The basic questions were: (1) how large is long-range predictability with perfect model and data; (2) how sensitive is such predictability to uncertainties in model and data; (3) which atmospheric processes are related to this predictability? These questions were answered through numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model which is forced with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. In particular, four tasks were accomplished:

ISBN: 0493908498Subjects--Topical Terms:

676987
Environmental Sciences.

Long-range atmospheric predictability.
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300 $a 261 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 63-11, Section: B, page: 5138.
500 $a Chair: John O. Roads.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2003.
520 $a This study investigated the prospects and limits of global atmospheric predictability on the long range (beyond 2 weeks). Forecasting the atmosphere at this range is very challenging since elements of both weather and climate prediction enter the problem. The basic questions were: (1) how large is long-range predictability with perfect model and data; (2) how sensitive is such predictability to uncertainties in model and data; (3) which atmospheric processes are related to this predictability? These questions were answered through numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model which is forced with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. In particular, four tasks were accomplished:
520 $a First, temporal variations of predictability and its relationship to initial and boundary conditions were examined. On average, initial conditions dominated predictability for the first 4 weeks, improved predictability for 6 weeks, and influenced predictability for 8 weeks. These time scales varied with season, region, and strength of the external forcing.
520 $a Second, the global 3-dimensional structure of predictability was examined. Boundary forcing dominated over the tropics, and over the two main teleconnection regions in the North and South Pacific. Initial conditions influenced predictability almost everywhere, in particular when the external forcing was weak. This was mostly related to atmospheric persistence, which in turn was linked to low-frequency variability of major atmospheric modes.
520 $a Third, predictability in the tropics was investigated for monthly means. Boundary forcing is generally dominating for this time scale, and its quality is crucial. The atmospheric response was strongly asymmetric to SST forcing, which suggests that tropical convection has a positive self-amplifying feedback. Initial conditions were also important, in particular over the Eastern Hemisphere. This was related to strong persistence of the divergent circulation and the sensitivity of tropical convection to large scale winds.
520 $a Fourth, the predictability of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation was examined. Initial conditions were important, but the oscillation was also very sensitive to the structure of boundary forcing. With prescribed weekly sea surface temperatures, the oscillation was realistically simulated. Useful skill extended out to about 4 weeks, which offers great hope for improved tropical and even extratropical long-range predictability.
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790 1 0 $a Roads, John O., $e advisor
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791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2003
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