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Characterization of Palmer drought i...

Lohani, Vinod K.

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Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation./
作者:	Lohani, Vinod K.
面頁冊數:	288 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-11, Section: B, page: 6273.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International56-11B.
標題:	Engineering, Civil. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9606241

Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation.
Lohani, Vinod K.

Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation. - 288 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-11, Section: B, page: 6273.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1995.

Coping with droughts involves two phases. In the first phase drought susceptibility of a region should be assessed for developing proper additional sources of supply which will be exploited during the course of a drought. The second phase focuses on the issuance of drought warnings and exercising mitigation measures during a drought. These kinds of information are extremely valuable to decision making authorities.Subjects--Topical Terms:

783781
Engineering, Civil.

Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation.
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245 1 0 $a Characterization of Palmer drought index as a predictor for drought mitigation.
300 $a 288 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-11, Section: B, page: 6273.
500 $a Chairman: G. V. Loganathan.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1995.
520 $a Coping with droughts involves two phases. In the first phase drought susceptibility of a region should be assessed for developing proper additional sources of supply which will be exploited during the course of a drought. The second phase focuses on the issuance of drought warnings and exercising mitigation measures during a drought. These kinds of information are extremely valuable to decision making authorities.
520 $a In this dissertation three broad schemes (i) time series modeling, (ii) Markov chain analysis, and (iii) dynamical systems approach are put forward for computing the drought parameters necessary for understanding the scope of the drought. These parameters include drought occurrence probabilities, duration of various drought severity classes which describe a region's drought susceptibility, and first times of arrival for nondrought classes which signify times of relief for a drought-affected region. These schemes also predict drought based on given current conditions.
520 $a In the time series analysis two classes of models; the fixed parameter and the time varying models are formulated. To overcome the bimodal behavior of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), primarily due to the backtracking scheme to reset the temporary index values as the PDSI values, the models are fitted to the Z index in addition to the PDSI for the forecasting of the PDSI.
520 $a In the non-homogeneous Markov chain, monthly transition probabilities are utilized to evaluate steady state probabilities of occurrences of various drought severity classes, expected class, duration, and times of first visit to different weather classes signifying entry into and exit out of drought classes. Also, a decision tree formulation is offered for operational decision making during the course of a dry spell.
520 $a In the dynamical systems approach, by considering the hydrological processes to be local phenomenon and the forcing function namely, the precipitation, to be triggered by a global phenomenon, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) formulation is obtained. From the SDE an equivalent partial differential equation, the Fokker Planck equation, is obtained to yield the probability density function of the drought index. As an example, the fluctuations in the global forcing is attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Its effects are accounted for through the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Sea Surface temperature (SST) index. The drift and diffusion functions employed in the Fokker Planck equation capture sudden changes in the index values. To handle nonlinear drift functions, a piecewise linearization scheme is suggested which, along with a constant diffusion function, leads to employing a segmentwise Gaussian distribution as the solution with considerable ease.
520 $a It is hoped that the proposed methodologies will help in the issuance of drought warnings in a timely manner without undue burden on the forecasters or the citizenry. The results should also help in planning for additional water resources for the drought prone regions.
590 $a School code: 0247.
650 4 $a Engineering, Civil. $3 783781
650 4 $a Hydrology. $3 545716
650 4 $a Engineering, Agricultural. $3 1019504
650 4 $a Environmental Sciences. $3 676987
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710 2 0 $a Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. $3 1017496
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 56-11B.
790 1 0 $a Loganathan, G. V., $e advisor
790 $a 0247
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 1995
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9606241