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Teaching about the future

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Teaching about the future/ by Peter C. Bishop, Andy Hines.
作者:	Bishop, Peter C.
其他作者:	Hines, Andy,
出版者:	Basingstoke :Palgrave Macmillan, : 2012.,
面頁冊數:	1 online resource :ill. (some col.)
內容註:	Introducing the Future -- Why Teach the Future? -- The Problem of Prediction -- The Future(s) -- Be Prepared -- Imagine the Future -- Create the Future -- The Tricks of Foresight -- Telling Stories -- Pursuing Visions -- The Benefits of Foresight -- Structure of the Book -- PART I: UNDERSTANDING -- Models of Change -- Introduction -- Understanding Change -- What is Change? -- How Much Change is There? -- The Four Dimensions of Change -- A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium -- 'What can we know about the future?' -- [Not] Predicting the Future -- Certainty -- Assumptions -- Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility -- Futures Methods -- Some Definitions Around Methods -- Thinking about the Future Framework -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Systems Thinking -- Introduction -- History -- Limits to Growth: Three Strikes! -- Generalization -- System Behaviours -- Approach -- Cybernetic Systems -- Complex Adaptive Systems -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Perspectives on the Future -- Introduction -- History -- Empirical and Cultural -- Critical -- Integral -- Generalization -- Approach -- Causal Layered Analysis -- Integral Futures -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Social Change -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Explaining Social Change -- Critical Assumptions -- Approach -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART II: MAPPING -- Research -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Choosing a Domain -- Primary Research -- Secondary Research -- Approach -- Research Supports Framework Forecasting -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Scanning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Why Scanning is Difficult -- Approach -- Identify Scanning Hits -- Scan a Wide Range of Sources -- Operate at Different Levels of the Domain -- Keep an Eye on Wildcards -- Keep Track of Your Hits -- Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits -- Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Forecasting -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Forecasting Theory -- Approach: Framework Forecasting -- Summary -- Era Analysis -- Baseline Forecasting -- Critical Thinking -- Baseline Analysis -- Creativity -- Alternative Futures Forecasting -- Scenario Kernels -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART III: INFLUENCING -- Leadership -- Introduction -- History -- Era I: Traits -- Era 2: Situation -- Era 3: Effectiveness -- Era 4: Contingency -- Era 5: Shared Leadership -- Era 6: Managers and Leaders -- Generalization -- Leadership Distinctions -- Approach -- Leading People into New Territory -- Exploring Boundaries of the Possible -- Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve -- Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River -- Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Visioning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Attributes of a Vision -- Vision Statements -- Approach -- Values -- Background -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Planning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Approach -- Planning to Plan -- Understanding the Future -- Setting the Direction -- Developing the Plan -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Change Management -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Establish a Sense of Urgency -- Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition -- . . . Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances -- . . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope -- . . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic -- . . . Always Politicizes Communication -- . . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups -- . . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time -- . . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force -- Approach -- Have a Good Reason -- Be Honest about the Process -- Articulate a Vision -- Commit to Achieve the Vision -- Communicate! -- Generate Trust -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Appendices -- Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation.
標題:	Forecasting - Study and teaching. -
電子資源:	http://link.springer.com/10.1057/9781137020703
ISBN:	9781137020703 (electronic bk.)

Teaching about the future
Bishop, Peter C.

Teaching about the future[electronic resource] /by Peter C. Bishop, Andy Hines. - Basingstoke :Palgrave Macmillan,2012. - 1 online resource :ill. (some col.)

Introducing the Future -- Why Teach the Future? -- The Problem of Prediction -- The Future(s) -- Be Prepared -- Imagine the Future -- Create the Future -- The Tricks of Foresight -- Telling Stories -- Pursuing Visions -- The Benefits of Foresight -- Structure of the Book -- PART I: UNDERSTANDING -- Models of Change -- Introduction -- Understanding Change -- What is Change? -- How Much Change is There? -- The Four Dimensions of Change -- A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium -- 'What can we know about the future?' -- [Not] Predicting the Future -- Certainty -- Assumptions -- Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility -- Futures Methods -- Some Definitions Around Methods -- Thinking about the Future Framework -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Systems Thinking -- Introduction -- History -- Limits to Growth: Three Strikes! -- Generalization -- System Behaviours -- Approach -- Cybernetic Systems -- Complex Adaptive Systems -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Perspectives on the Future -- Introduction -- History -- Empirical and Cultural -- Critical -- Integral -- Generalization -- Approach -- Causal Layered Analysis -- Integral Futures -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Social Change -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Explaining Social Change -- Critical Assumptions -- Approach -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART II: MAPPING -- Research -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Choosing a Domain -- Primary Research -- Secondary Research -- Approach -- Research Supports Framework Forecasting -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Scanning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Why Scanning is Difficult -- Approach -- Identify Scanning Hits -- Scan a Wide Range of Sources -- Operate at Different Levels of the Domain -- Keep an Eye on Wildcards -- Keep Track of Your Hits -- Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits -- Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Forecasting -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Forecasting Theory -- Approach: Framework Forecasting -- Summary -- Era Analysis -- Baseline Forecasting -- Critical Thinking -- Baseline Analysis -- Creativity -- Alternative Futures Forecasting -- Scenario Kernels -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART III: INFLUENCING -- Leadership -- Introduction -- History -- Era I: Traits -- Era 2: Situation -- Era 3: Effectiveness -- Era 4: Contingency -- Era 5: Shared Leadership -- Era 6: Managers and Leaders -- Generalization -- Leadership Distinctions -- Approach -- Leading People into New Territory -- Exploring Boundaries of the Possible -- Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve -- Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River -- Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Visioning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Attributes of a Vision -- Vision Statements -- Approach -- Values -- Background -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Planning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Approach -- Planning to Plan -- Understanding the Future -- Setting the Direction -- Developing the Plan -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Change Management -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Establish a Sense of Urgency -- Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition -- . . . Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances -- . . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope -- . . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic -- . . . Always Politicizes Communication -- . . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups -- . . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time -- . . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force -- Approach -- Have a Good Reason -- Be Honest about the Process -- Articulate a Vision -- Commit to Achieve the Vision -- Communicate! -- Generate Trust -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Appendices -- Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation.

In 1975 the University of Houston-Clear Lake created the first degree program in Futures Studies. Now the faculty of that program share their approach to preparing foresight professionals and others doing foresight projects. This volume contains a comprehensive and integrated approach that practitioners and educators alike can use to understand the theories, methods, and applications of this new field. Based on 35 years of teaching, this volume reveals how to systematically deal with change, how to develop scenarios that describe alternative futures and how to develop visions and plans for influencing those futures. The systematic description of the past (history) was established 2,500 years ago. Unfortunately, educational systems around the world have failed to prepare their students for their changing and challenging future. It is now time to establish a systematic approach to the future. Teaching about the Future is an important step in that direction.

ISBN: 9781137020703 (electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 9786613844613

Source: 546789Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgraveconnect.comSubjects--Topical Terms:

744506
Forecasting
--Study and teaching.Index Terms--Genre/Form:

542853
Electronic books.

LC Class. No.: CB158 / .B57 2012

Dewey Class. No.: 303.49071

Teaching about the future
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505 0 $a Introducing the Future -- Why Teach the Future? -- The Problem of Prediction -- The Future(s) -- Be Prepared -- Imagine the Future -- Create the Future -- The Tricks of Foresight -- Telling Stories -- Pursuing Visions -- The Benefits of Foresight -- Structure of the Book -- PART I: UNDERSTANDING -- Models of Change -- Introduction -- Understanding Change -- What is Change? -- How Much Change is There? -- The Four Dimensions of Change -- A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium -- 'What can we know about the future?' -- [Not] Predicting the Future -- Certainty -- Assumptions -- Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility -- Futures Methods -- Some Definitions Around Methods -- Thinking about the Future Framework -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Systems Thinking -- Introduction -- History -- Limits to Growth: Three Strikes! -- Generalization -- System Behaviours -- Approach -- Cybernetic Systems -- Complex Adaptive Systems -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Perspectives on the Future -- Introduction -- History -- Empirical and Cultural -- Critical -- Integral -- Generalization -- Approach -- Causal Layered Analysis -- Integral Futures -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Social Change -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Explaining Social Change -- Critical Assumptions -- Approach -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART II: MAPPING -- Research -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Choosing a Domain -- Primary Research -- Secondary Research -- Approach -- Research Supports Framework Forecasting -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Scanning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Why Scanning is Difficult -- Approach -- Identify Scanning Hits -- Scan a Wide Range of Sources -- Operate at Different Levels of the Domain -- Keep an Eye on Wildcards -- Keep Track of Your Hits -- Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits -- Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Forecasting -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Forecasting Theory -- Approach: Framework Forecasting -- Summary -- Era Analysis -- Baseline Forecasting -- Critical Thinking -- Baseline Analysis -- Creativity -- Alternative Futures Forecasting -- Scenario Kernels -- Conclusion -- Resources -- PART III: INFLUENCING -- Leadership -- Introduction -- History -- Era I: Traits -- Era 2: Situation -- Era 3: Effectiveness -- Era 4: Contingency -- Era 5: Shared Leadership -- Era 6: Managers and Leaders -- Generalization -- Leadership Distinctions -- Approach -- Leading People into New Territory -- Exploring Boundaries of the Possible -- Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve -- Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River -- Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Visioning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Attributes of a Vision -- Vision Statements -- Approach -- Values -- Background -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Planning -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Approach -- Planning to Plan -- Understanding the Future -- Setting the Direction -- Developing the Plan -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Change Management -- Introduction -- History -- Generalization -- Establish a Sense of Urgency -- Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition -- . . . Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances -- . . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope -- . . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic -- . . . Always Politicizes Communication -- . . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups -- . . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time -- . . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force -- Approach -- Have a Good Reason -- Be Honest about the Process -- Articulate a Vision -- Commit to Achieve the Vision -- Communicate! -- Generate Trust -- Conclusion -- Resources -- Appendices -- Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 2: World Futures -- Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation.
520 $a In 1975 the University of Houston-Clear Lake created the first degree program in Futures Studies. Now the faculty of that program share their approach to preparing foresight professionals and others doing foresight projects. This volume contains a comprehensive and integrated approach that practitioners and educators alike can use to understand the theories, methods, and applications of this new field. Based on 35 years of teaching, this volume reveals how to systematically deal with change, how to develop scenarios that describe alternative futures and how to develop visions and plans for influencing those futures. The systematic description of the past (history) was established 2,500 years ago. Unfortunately, educational systems around the world have failed to prepare their students for their changing and challenging future. It is now time to establish a systematic approach to the future. Teaching about the Future is an important step in that direction.
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