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The economic impact of seasonal fore...

Texas A&M University.

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The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade./
作者:	Hill, Harvey Spencer Joseph.
面頁冊數:	179 p.
附註:	Co-Chairs: James W. Mjelde; H. Alan Love.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International61-07A.
標題:	Economics, Agricultural. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9980160
ISBN:	0599862246

The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade.
Hill, Harvey Spencer Joseph.

The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade. - 179 p.

Co-Chairs: James W. Mjelde; H. Alan Love.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Texas A&M University, 2000.

Until recently, skillful, or accurate, seasonal variability forecasts were not considered possible. That is changing. Meteorological research is uncovering linkages between components of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño and La Niña events, and seasonal variability across many regions of the world (Walker; Bjerknes 1966, 1969; Wyrtki; Ropelewski and Halpert 1986, 1987, 1989). ENSO anomalies are significant as they often precede predictable seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature by one to six months.

ISBN: 0599862246Subjects--Topical Terms:

626648
Economics, Agricultural.

The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade.
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245 1 0 $a The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade.
300 $a 179 p.
500 $a Co-Chairs: James W. Mjelde; H. Alan Love.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-07, Section: A, page: 2835.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Texas A&M University, 2000.
520 $a Until recently, skillful, or accurate, seasonal variability forecasts were not considered possible. That is changing. Meteorological research is uncovering linkages between components of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño and La Niña events, and seasonal variability across many regions of the world (Walker; Bjerknes 1966, 1969; Wyrtki; Ropelewski and Halpert 1986, 1987, 1989). ENSO anomalies are significant as they often precede predictable seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature by one to six months.
520 $a Current knowledge regarding ENSO is sufficient, albeit imperfect, for studying the implications of seasonal forecasts for the agricultural sector. Producers' responses to climate forecasts may affect supply, prices, stocks, producer and consumer surplus and total national welfare.
520 $a This study estimates potential welfare ramifications associated with producers' use of seasonal forecasts in wheat exporting countries. A dynamic-stochastic international wheat trade model is developed to achieve the objective. Two scenarios are compared. In scenario one, Australian, Canadian, and U.S. farmers base production decisions on historical seasonal variability without regard to seasonal forecasts. In scenario two, producers use ENSO based seasonal forecasts to adjust input usage and formulate price expectations. Modifications of field-level practices are translated into changes in exporting nations' wheat supplies to develop national supply incorporating seasonal forecasts. These supply and price expectation functions, are incorporated into a price endogenous trade model to predict supplies, stocks, and exports for the U.S., Australia, Canada, the European Union, Argentina, and Rest of World.
520 $a Incorporating improved seasonal forecasts into production results in lower equilibrium prices for all countries. Australian and Canadian expected supplies, exports and producer surpluses increase while U.S. expected supplies, exports and producer surplus decline. Expected consumer surplus increases in all countries. However, the sequence of phases observed over a 25-year period affects the value of seasonal forecasts for any particular period. Results indicate society can potentially benefit from further investment in seasonal forecasting.
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790 1 0 $a Mjelde, James W., $e advisor
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792 $a 2000
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