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Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar ...

University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez (Puerto Rico).

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Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar la trayectoria e intensidad de los huracanes en el Oceano Atlantico.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar la trayectoria e intensidad de los huracanes en el Oceano Atlantico./
作者:	Castro Sanchez, Joan Manuel.
面頁冊數:	163 p.
附註:	Adviser: Nazario D. Ramirez Beltran.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International46-05.
標題:	Engineering, Electronics and Electrical. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=1451311
ISBN:	9780549584551

Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar la trayectoria e intensidad de los huracanes en el Oceano Atlantico.
Castro Sanchez, Joan Manuel.

Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar la trayectoria e intensidad de los huracanes en el Oceano Atlantico. - 163 p.

Adviser: Nazario D. Ramirez Beltran.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez (Puerto Rico), 2008.

Scientists, mathematicians and engineers, have studied the evolution of the hurricane for a long time. Two of the most interesting aspects that the hurricane researchers take in consideration are hurricane displacement and hurricane intensification. People who work in the meteorology field have developed different tools and methods to analyze, predict and forecast hurricane intensity and hurricane displacement. Hurricane experts are using dynamic models, for example Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL ) to predict hurricane tracks and statistical models, such as, Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to forecast hurricane intensity.

ISBN: 9780549584551Subjects--Topical Terms:

626636
Engineering, Electronics and Electrical.

Nuevas estrategias para pronosticar la trayectoria e intensidad de los huracanes en el Oceano Atlantico.
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520 $a Scientists, mathematicians and engineers, have studied the evolution of the hurricane for a long time. Two of the most interesting aspects that the hurricane researchers take in consideration are hurricane displacement and hurricane intensification. People who work in the meteorology field have developed different tools and methods to analyze, predict and forecast hurricane intensity and hurricane displacement. Hurricane experts are using dynamic models, for example Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL ) to predict hurricane tracks and statistical models, such as, Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to forecast hurricane intensity.
520 $a Our proposed statistical and dynamic prediction method was developed to predict hurricane tracks and intensity during twelve and twenty-four hours in advance. We used numerical models that simulated synoptic variables for the atmosphere, surface and ocean. Source of information mainly come from radiosondes, satellites, aircrafts, ships, and radars. In this work, we showed some strategies to select the best predictors to forecast hurricane tracks and hurricane intensity. To do this, we used statistics tools; for example, a variable selection procedure is used to identify the best predictors to forecast displacement and change wind intensity. We also applied no-lineal optimization techniques to identify the structure and parameters of the transfer function model. Our main objective was to develop a simple, quick and efficient hurricane tracking and intensity forecast scheme that reduce predictions errors generated by National Hurricane Center models.
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