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Valuation of design adaptability in ...

Georgia Institute of Technology.

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Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems./
作者:	Fernandez Martin, Ismael.
面頁冊數:	284 p.
附註:	Adviser: Dimitri N. Mavris.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International69-04B.
標題:	Economics, Finance. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3308753
ISBN:	9780549558026

Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems.
Fernandez Martin, Ismael.

Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems. - 284 p.

Adviser: Dimitri N. Mavris.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.

As more information is brought into early stages of the design, more pressure is put on engineers to produce a reliable, high quality, and financially sustainable product. Unfortunately, requirements established at the beginning of a new project by customers, and the environment that surrounds them, continue to change in some unpredictable ways. The risk of designing a system that may become obsolete during early stages of production is currently tackled by the use of robust design simulation, a method that allows to simultaneously explore a plethora of design alternatives and requirements with the intention of accounting for uncertain factors in the future. Whereas this design technique has proven to be quite an improvement in design methods, under certain conditions, it fails to account for the change of uncertainty over time and the intrinsic value embedded in the system when certain design features are activated. This thesis introduces the concepts of adaptability and real options to manage risk foreseen in the face of uncertainty at early design stages.

ISBN: 9780549558026Subjects--Topical Terms:

626650
Economics, Finance.

Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems.
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245 1 0 $a Valuation of design adaptability in aerospace systems.
300 $a 284 p.
500 $a Adviser: Dimitri N. Mavris.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-04, Section: B, page: 2438.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.
520 $a As more information is brought into early stages of the design, more pressure is put on engineers to produce a reliable, high quality, and financially sustainable product. Unfortunately, requirements established at the beginning of a new project by customers, and the environment that surrounds them, continue to change in some unpredictable ways. The risk of designing a system that may become obsolete during early stages of production is currently tackled by the use of robust design simulation, a method that allows to simultaneously explore a plethora of design alternatives and requirements with the intention of accounting for uncertain factors in the future. Whereas this design technique has proven to be quite an improvement in design methods, under certain conditions, it fails to account for the change of uncertainty over time and the intrinsic value embedded in the system when certain design features are activated. This thesis introduces the concepts of adaptability and real options to manage risk foreseen in the face of uncertainty at early design stages.
520 $a The method described herein allows decision-makers to foresee the financial impact of their decisions at the design level, as well as the final exposure to risk. In this thesis, cash flow models, traditionally used to obtain the forecast of a project's value over the years, were replaced with surrogate models that are capable of showing fluctuations on value every few days. This allowed a better implementation of real options valuation, optimization, and strategy selection. Through the option analysis model, an optimization exercise allows the user to obtain the best implementation strategy in the face of uncertainty as well as the overall value of the design feature. Here implementation strategy refers to the decision to include a new design feature in the system, after the design has been finalized, but before the end of its production life. The ability to do this in a cost efficient manner after the system design is under production is referred to as adaptability.
520 $a This thesis contains two relevant examples regarding the decision of introducing new technologies. First, the case study of Southwest Airlines, and the decision it took to retrofit blended winglets technology in its already delivered Boeing 737-700, is introduced as a validation exercise and for calibration purposes. Such case also demonstrates that the method is applicable to a real life example with simple technologies. The second example analyzes the decision of introducing new technologies into the design of the new jet engine to power the next generation of narrow body aircraft. The development of such aircraft, set to replace the Boeing 737 and Airbus 320 models, is currently at conceptual levels. In this case, the manufacturer evaluates whether technologies should be included in the design, left out, or offered as an option to retrofit in the future. This case demonstrates the benefits of each of these actions and the monetary value of offering retrofitting options as upgrades to the airlines when the value of the technology fluctuates considerably between profitable and not profitable. The purpose of this case is to demonstrate the applicability of the method to the preliminary design phases of complex systems while accounting for uncertainty of external factors over time.
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