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Energy development and carbon dioxide emissions in China.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Energy development and carbon dioxide emissions in China./
作者:	Xi, Xiaolin.
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (287 pages)
附註:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 55-04, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International55-04B.
標題:	Environmental science. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9322876click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798617017771

Energy development and carbon dioxide emissions in China.
Xi, Xiaolin.

Energy development and carbon dioxide emissions in China. - 1 online resource (287 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 55-04, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1992.

Includes bibliographical references

The development of the Base scenario starts with examinations of domestic energy resources, the major constraints for future Chinese energy development, and current Chinese energy supply and demand systems. This study develops projections of final energy use for five demand sectors: agricultural, industrial, transport, service and residential sectors. For each sector, this study examines current status of energy use, explores energy saving potentials and projects future final use. It is found that in the Base scenario without coal conversion, primary energy use would increase from 1.18 Btce in 1985 to 6.23 Btce in 2050. If coal conversion to liquid and gaseous fuels is needed, primary energy use will increase by 0.76 Btce. Corresponding CO2 emissions during the 1985-2050 period for both cases will increase from 0.51 Bt in 1985 to 2.67 Bt and 3.40 Bt, respectively. To examine the uncertainty of the results obtained from the Base scenario, an uncertainty analysis is conducted on various key variables through stochastic simulation performed in DEMOS, a computer program developed for dealing with uncertainty in policy analysis. The results show that the 50% and 90% confidence intervals for primary energy use in 2050 are (5.1 Btce, 8.3 Btce) and (3.8 Btce, 11.9 Btce) and for CO2 emissions in 2050 are (2.3 Bt, 4.1 Bt) and (1.6 Bt, 6.2 Bt). For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined. It is found that when China evolves from an energy system as described in the Base scenario to an optimized system, with additional $6 billion capital investment over the 35-year period, cumulative system cost can be reduced by $448 billion and CO2 emissions is also reduced by 6.06 billion tons. This implies a negative system cost and a low average investment cost, $4.76/ton C, while these two values are $5.43/ton C and $7.68/ton C in the U.S. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2023

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798617017771Subjects--Topical Terms:

677245
Environmental science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

carbon dioxide emissionsIndex Terms--Genre/Form:

542853
Electronic books.

Energy development and carbon dioxide emissions in China.
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504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a The development of the Base scenario starts with examinations of domestic energy resources, the major constraints for future Chinese energy development, and current Chinese energy supply and demand systems. This study develops projections of final energy use for five demand sectors: agricultural, industrial, transport, service and residential sectors. For each sector, this study examines current status of energy use, explores energy saving potentials and projects future final use. It is found that in the Base scenario without coal conversion, primary energy use would increase from 1.18 Btce in 1985 to 6.23 Btce in 2050. If coal conversion to liquid and gaseous fuels is needed, primary energy use will increase by 0.76 Btce. Corresponding CO2 emissions during the 1985-2050 period for both cases will increase from 0.51 Bt in 1985 to 2.67 Bt and 3.40 Bt, respectively. To examine the uncertainty of the results obtained from the Base scenario, an uncertainty analysis is conducted on various key variables through stochastic simulation performed in DEMOS, a computer program developed for dealing with uncertainty in policy analysis. The results show that the 50% and 90% confidence intervals for primary energy use in 2050 are (5.1 Btce, 8.3 Btce) and (3.8 Btce, 11.9 Btce) and for CO2 emissions in 2050 are (2.3 Bt, 4.1 Bt) and (1.6 Bt, 6.2 Bt). For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined. It is found that when China evolves from an energy system as described in the Base scenario to an optimized system, with additional $6 billion capital investment over the 35-year period, cumulative system cost can be reduced by $448 billion and CO2 emissions is also reduced by 6.06 billion tons. This implies a negative system cost and a low average investment cost, $4.76/ton C, while these two values are $5.43/ton C and $7.68/ton C in the U.S. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).
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653 $a carbon dioxide emissions
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