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Indicators and Warnings of Russian Military Offensives.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Indicators and Warnings of Russian Military Offensives./
Author:	Essex, Evan Z.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2022,
Description:	44 p.
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-12.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International83-12.
Subject:	Information science. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=29210643
ISBN:	9798819377376

Indicators and Warnings of Russian Military Offensives.
Essex, Evan Z.

Indicators and Warnings of Russian Military Offensives. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2022 - 44 p.

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-12.

Thesis (M.S.)--State University of New York at Albany, 2022.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was the only Russian military offensive that had adequate warning that the Russians would invade. The four previous instances of Russian military operations including intervention in Moldova (1992), invasion of Georgia (2008), annexation of Crimea (2014), and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine (2014) all occurred without warning that Russia was going to invade and consequently, those target countries had no time to prepare. If NATO, allied combatant commanders, as well as their respective intelligence organizations want to be able to prepare and effectively respond in the future to Russian military operations, an understanding of potential indicators of pending Russian military actions including an estimate of when they can be expected to begin is required. Through an exploratory analysis approach, this thesis examined the four cases cited above along with the events that occurred prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to examine and validate the following indicators of Russian military offensives: Tension, Military exercises, Passportization and the use/support of proxy forces. This thesis provides evidence that these indicators can be used to predict future Russian Military operations.

ISBN: 9798819377376Subjects--Topical Terms:

554358
Information science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Military exercises

Indicators and Warnings of Russian Military Offensives.
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520 $a Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was the only Russian military offensive that had adequate warning that the Russians would invade. The four previous instances of Russian military operations including intervention in Moldova (1992), invasion of Georgia (2008), annexation of Crimea (2014), and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine (2014) all occurred without warning that Russia was going to invade and consequently, those target countries had no time to prepare. If NATO, allied combatant commanders, as well as their respective intelligence organizations want to be able to prepare and effectively respond in the future to Russian military operations, an understanding of potential indicators of pending Russian military actions including an estimate of when they can be expected to begin is required. Through an exploratory analysis approach, this thesis examined the four cases cited above along with the events that occurred prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to examine and validate the following indicators of Russian military offensives: Tension, Military exercises, Passportization and the use/support of proxy forces. This thesis provides evidence that these indicators can be used to predict future Russian Military operations.
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