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Essays on the Market for Prototypes.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Essays on the Market for Prototypes./
Author:	Groesbeck, Thomas Jorgenson.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2021,
Description:	122 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International83-01B.
Subject:	Systems science. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28544444
ISBN:	9798516075360

Essays on the Market for Prototypes.
Groesbeck, Thomas Jorgenson.

Essays on the Market for Prototypes. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021 - 122 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Los Angeles, 2021.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Why do so many firms successfully bring innovative new products to market, only to fail shortly thereafter? I argue that early sales are critical in improving a product's characteristics, leading to more sales: the result is a ``bottle rocket" economy where a minor difference in initial trajectory leads a firm to accelerate to the heavens or just as rapidly crash to earth.Chapter 1 concerns the role of reliability growth in dynamics. A firm can observe problems encountered by early adopters and modify their blueprint accordingly. Trial-and-error thus allows successful products to become more reliable, and thus even more successful, posing a challenging ``competitive moat" to entrants. I apply this model to the market for space launches, showing that observable reliability growth explains the longevity of rockets from the 1950s, the expensive failure of the majority of new orbital launch vehicles, and the apparent backfiring of US sanctions meant to stem the growth of the Chinese space sector.Chapter 2 extends this model of reliability growth to software: crucially, automatic updates allow early adopters to benefit from continued product improvement. This results in a dynamic game of imperfect information: consumers adopt a product based on both current value and expected future improvements, while firms must decide if delivering on expectations is profitable. I find that firms release patches at a relatively steady rate until support is ended completely, and present an equilibrium where protracted steady patching serves as both a direct product improvement and a credible signal for long-term support.Chapter 3 concerns social influence in adopting a new product: users can delay adoption until network effects strengthen or social consensus is positive. I establish a micro-foundation for the canonical ``social influence" model of adoption, and develop a novel nonparametric estimator the heterogeneity of user preferences underlying an observed adoption curve. Using adoption curves from the market for video games, I show that this algorithm produces estimates consistent with known product characteristics, i.e. the relative importance of social features versus independent early adopters.

ISBN: 9798516075360Subjects--Topical Terms:

3168411
Systems science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Aerospace

Essays on the Market for Prototypes.
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100 1 $a Groesbeck, Thomas Jorgenson. $3 3688971
245 1 0 $a Essays on the Market for Prototypes.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2021
300 $a 122 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01, Section: B.
500 $a Advisor: Voigtlaender, Nico.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Los Angeles, 2021.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a Why do so many firms successfully bring innovative new products to market, only to fail shortly thereafter? I argue that early sales are critical in improving a product's characteristics, leading to more sales: the result is a ``bottle rocket" economy where a minor difference in initial trajectory leads a firm to accelerate to the heavens or just as rapidly crash to earth.Chapter 1 concerns the role of reliability growth in dynamics. A firm can observe problems encountered by early adopters and modify their blueprint accordingly. Trial-and-error thus allows successful products to become more reliable, and thus even more successful, posing a challenging ``competitive moat" to entrants. I apply this model to the market for space launches, showing that observable reliability growth explains the longevity of rockets from the 1950s, the expensive failure of the majority of new orbital launch vehicles, and the apparent backfiring of US sanctions meant to stem the growth of the Chinese space sector.Chapter 2 extends this model of reliability growth to software: crucially, automatic updates allow early adopters to benefit from continued product improvement. This results in a dynamic game of imperfect information: consumers adopt a product based on both current value and expected future improvements, while firms must decide if delivering on expectations is profitable. I find that firms release patches at a relatively steady rate until support is ended completely, and present an equilibrium where protracted steady patching serves as both a direct product improvement and a credible signal for long-term support.Chapter 3 concerns social influence in adopting a new product: users can delay adoption until network effects strengthen or social consensus is positive. I establish a micro-foundation for the canonical ``social influence" model of adoption, and develop a novel nonparametric estimator the heterogeneity of user preferences underlying an observed adoption curve. Using adoption curves from the market for video games, I show that this algorithm produces estimates consistent with known product characteristics, i.e. the relative importance of social features versus independent early adopters.
590 $a School code: 0031.
650 4 $a Systems science. $3 3168411
653 $a Aerospace
653 $a Industrial organization
653 $a Innovation
653 $a International trade
653 $a Reliability
653 $a Video games
690 $a 0501
690 $a 0454
690 $a 0338
690 $a 0429
690 $a 0790
710 2 $a University of California, Los Angeles. $b Management (MS/PHD) 0535. $3 2093752
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 83-01B.
790 $a 0031
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2021
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28544444