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Expectation Error.

Zhang, Xiao.

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Expectation Error.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Expectation Error./
Author:	Zhang, Xiao.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2019,
Description:	64 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-04, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International81-04A.
Subject:	Finance. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=13886153
ISBN:	9781085775090

Expectation Error.
Zhang, Xiao.

Expectation Error. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019 - 64 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-04, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Chicago, 2019.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

I backcast expectation errors of credit spreads via machine learning. I use newspapers over the past century to construct text-based expectations of credit spreads and study the relationship between expectation errors and business cycles. The main result is that overoptimism about future credit spreads predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment over the medium run, even after controlling for past and prevailing credit spreads. This finding suggests credit-market sentiment is an important driver of economic fluctuations. Consistent with this story, I also find both the amount of net debt issuance and the ratio of debt to equity issuance increase following periods of overoptimism.

ISBN: 9781085775090Subjects--Topical Terms:

542899
Finance.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Analyst forecasts

Expectation Error.
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100 1 $a Zhang, Xiao. $3 2101938
245 1 0 $a Expectation Error.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2019
300 $a 64 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-04, Section: A.
500 $a Advisor: Sufi, Amir.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Chicago, 2019.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
506 $a This item must not be added to any third party search indexes.
520 $a I backcast expectation errors of credit spreads via machine learning. I use newspapers over the past century to construct text-based expectations of credit spreads and study the relationship between expectation errors and business cycles. The main result is that overoptimism about future credit spreads predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment over the medium run, even after controlling for past and prevailing credit spreads. This finding suggests credit-market sentiment is an important driver of economic fluctuations. Consistent with this story, I also find both the amount of net debt issuance and the ratio of debt to equity issuance increase following periods of overoptimism.
590 $a School code: 0330.
650 4 $a Finance. $3 542899
653 $a Analyst forecasts
653 $a Behavioral finance
653 $a Business cycles
653 $a Credit market sentiment
653 $a Textual analysis
653 $a Machine learning
653 $a Gross domestic product
690 $a 0508
710 2 $a The University of Chicago. $b Business. $3 1671506
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 81-04A.
790 $a 0330
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2019
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=13886153