語系:
繁體中文
English
說明(常見問題)
回圖書館首頁
手機版館藏查詢
登入
回首頁
切換:
標籤
|
MARC模式
|
ISBD
A Forecasting Framework for Complex ...
~
Palash, Khan Md Wahid.
FindBook
Google Book
Amazon
博客來
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity.
紀錄類型:
書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity./
作者:
Palash, Khan Md Wahid.
出版者:
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2019,
面頁冊數:
314 p.
附註:
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-05, Section: B.
Contained By:
Dissertations Abstracts International81-05B.
標題:
Water resources management. -
電子資源:
http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=22618906
ISBN:
9781392713020
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity.
Palash, Khan Md Wahid.
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity.
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019 - 314 p.
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-05, Section: B.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2019.
This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
A short (3 to 5-day) to mid-range (6 to 10-day) flood forecasting lead time is desired to increase the flood response and preparedness in flood-prone regions across the world. The major limitation of providing accurate flood forecasts of such lead times is mainly associated with system complexity (e.g., nonlinear interactions with feedback among system elements) and modeling complexity (e.g., uncertainty in precipitation measurement, scale mismatch between model equations and heterogeneity of variables and processes). To generate a perfect (or nearly perfect) model of such a system, one has to model everything (or nearly everything). Yet, as Lorenz (1963) aptly pointed out, in a nonlinear system with feedback, approximate accurate representation of the present does not guarantee accurate forecast of the future due to sensitivity to the initial conditions. How do we, then, understand, model, and manage such a complex system? The main objective of this doctoral research is, therefore, to explore and examine the utility of framing flood forecasting as a complex system problem. To achieve this objective, a data-driven simple flood forecasting scheme using the notion of requisite simplicity with a contextual and mechanistic understanding of river basin hydrology and regional hydrometeorological conditions is proposed. Applying requisite simplicity in this context involves identifying key variables and processes of rainfall-runoff, flow travel time, flood propagation along the river, and developing a mechanism to track their evolution, interconnections, feedback and system behavior. The developed data-based model-for its simplicity in model structure, utilization of easily available data, and more importantly, ease of making it operational for real-time applications-is named ReqSim (Requisitely Simple) flood forecasting model. The ReqSim model shows great promise to provide short (3 to 5-day) to mid-range (6 to 10-day) deterministic flood forecasts for medium to large river basins around the world. It also shows the potential of providing accurate forecasts for local scales by using outputs of the regional or global scale models. Findings suggest that models with requisite simplicity-relying on flow persistence, aggregated upstream rainfall, and travel time-can provide reliable flood forecasts comparable to relatively more complicated methods for up to 10-day lead time. Ease of operationalization and reliable forecasting accuracy of the proposed framework is of particular importance for large rivers, where access to upstream gauge-measured rainfall and flow data are limited, and detailed modeling approaches are operationally prohibitive and functionally ineffective.
ISBN: 9781392713020Subjects--Topical Terms:
794747
Water resources management.
Subjects--Index Terms:
Complexity science
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity.
LDR
:04040nmm a2200397 4500
001
2265899
005
20200529130313.5
008
220629s2019 ||||||||||||||||| ||eng d
020
$a
9781392713020
035
$a
(MiAaPQ)AAI22618906
035
$a
AAI22618906
040
$a
MiAaPQ
$c
MiAaPQ
100
1
$a
Palash, Khan Md Wahid.
$3
3543080
245
1 0
$a
A Forecasting Framework for Complex Systems: Reframing of Flood Forecasting from Local to Global Scales with Requisite Simplicity.
260
1
$a
Ann Arbor :
$b
ProQuest Dissertations & Theses,
$c
2019
300
$a
314 p.
500
$a
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-05, Section: B.
500
$a
Advisor: Islam, Shafiqul.
502
$a
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2019.
506
$a
This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
506
$a
This item must not be added to any third party search indexes.
520
$a
A short (3 to 5-day) to mid-range (6 to 10-day) flood forecasting lead time is desired to increase the flood response and preparedness in flood-prone regions across the world. The major limitation of providing accurate flood forecasts of such lead times is mainly associated with system complexity (e.g., nonlinear interactions with feedback among system elements) and modeling complexity (e.g., uncertainty in precipitation measurement, scale mismatch between model equations and heterogeneity of variables and processes). To generate a perfect (or nearly perfect) model of such a system, one has to model everything (or nearly everything). Yet, as Lorenz (1963) aptly pointed out, in a nonlinear system with feedback, approximate accurate representation of the present does not guarantee accurate forecast of the future due to sensitivity to the initial conditions. How do we, then, understand, model, and manage such a complex system? The main objective of this doctoral research is, therefore, to explore and examine the utility of framing flood forecasting as a complex system problem. To achieve this objective, a data-driven simple flood forecasting scheme using the notion of requisite simplicity with a contextual and mechanistic understanding of river basin hydrology and regional hydrometeorological conditions is proposed. Applying requisite simplicity in this context involves identifying key variables and processes of rainfall-runoff, flow travel time, flood propagation along the river, and developing a mechanism to track their evolution, interconnections, feedback and system behavior. The developed data-based model-for its simplicity in model structure, utilization of easily available data, and more importantly, ease of making it operational for real-time applications-is named ReqSim (Requisitely Simple) flood forecasting model. The ReqSim model shows great promise to provide short (3 to 5-day) to mid-range (6 to 10-day) deterministic flood forecasts for medium to large river basins around the world. It also shows the potential of providing accurate forecasts for local scales by using outputs of the regional or global scale models. Findings suggest that models with requisite simplicity-relying on flow persistence, aggregated upstream rainfall, and travel time-can provide reliable flood forecasts comparable to relatively more complicated methods for up to 10-day lead time. Ease of operationalization and reliable forecasting accuracy of the proposed framework is of particular importance for large rivers, where access to upstream gauge-measured rainfall and flow data are limited, and detailed modeling approaches are operationally prohibitive and functionally ineffective.
590
$a
School code: 0234.
650
4
$a
Water resources management.
$3
794747
650
4
$a
Hydrologic sciences.
$3
3168407
650
4
$a
Civil engineering.
$3
860360
653
$a
Complexity science
653
$a
Data-based modeling
653
$a
Flood forecasting
653
$a
Large rivers
653
$a
Rainfall-runoff
653
$a
Requisite simplicity
690
$a
0595
690
$a
0388
690
$a
0543
710
2
$a
Tufts University.
$b
Civil Engineering.
$3
1020594
773
0
$t
Dissertations Abstracts International
$g
81-05B.
790
$a
0234
791
$a
Ph.D.
792
$a
2019
793
$a
English
856
4 0
$u
http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=22618906
筆 0 讀者評論
館藏地:
全部
電子資源
出版年:
卷號:
館藏
1 筆 • 頁數 1 •
1
條碼號
典藏地名稱
館藏流通類別
資料類型
索書號
使用類型
借閱狀態
預約狀態
備註欄
附件
W9418133
電子資源
11.線上閱覽_V
電子書
EB
一般使用(Normal)
在架
0
1 筆 • 頁數 1 •
1
多媒體
評論
新增評論
分享你的心得
Export
取書館
處理中
...
變更密碼
登入