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Three Essays in Macroeconomics.

Cao, Yongquan.

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Three Essays in Macroeconomics.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Three Essays in Macroeconomics./
Author:	Cao, Yongquan.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2019,
Description:	139 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-12, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International80-12A.
Subject:	Economics. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=13877676
ISBN:	9781392168615

Three Essays in Macroeconomics.
Cao, Yongquan.

Three Essays in Macroeconomics. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019 - 139 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-12, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, 2019.

This item must not be added to any third party search indexes.

My dissertation consists of three independent chapters in macroeconomics. The first chapter investigates how much demographic uncertainty can account for low-frequency movements of productivity and inflation in the US. I estimate an 80-period Overlapping Generation New Keynesian model with birth rate and mortality rate shocks using US data from 1949-2014. I find that demographic movements can account for 25-45% of the low-frequency movements in productivity growth, and the simulated inflation due to only demographic shocks are strongly correlated with the low-frequency movements in inflation.The second chapter, which is a joint work with Huixin Bi and Wei Dong, studies how credit expansion policy, pursued by the Chinese government to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis episode, affects bank-firm loan contracts and the broad macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions, in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and default probability. We show that more persistent credit shocks lead to higher fiscal multipliers at all horizons, as the benefits of persistently alleviating firms' borrowing constraint outweigh the costs associated with higher non-performing loans.The third chapter, which is a joint work with Grey Gordon, develops computational tools to help researchers calibrate parameters in macroeconomic models. It proposes tests for determining whether a calibration strategy can match target moments using a model's parameters. The tests use moments at random parameter draws to assess whether the target moments are similar to the computed ones (evidence of existence) or appear to be outliers (evidence of non-existence). Our experiments show the tests are effective at detecting both existence and non-existence in a non-linear model.

ISBN: 9781392168615Subjects--Topical Terms:

517137
Economics.

Three Essays in Macroeconomics.
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300 $a 139 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 80-12, Section: A.
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500 $a Advisor: Leeper, Eric M.;Walker, Todd B.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, 2019.
506 $a This item must not be added to any third party search indexes.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a My dissertation consists of three independent chapters in macroeconomics. The first chapter investigates how much demographic uncertainty can account for low-frequency movements of productivity and inflation in the US. I estimate an 80-period Overlapping Generation New Keynesian model with birth rate and mortality rate shocks using US data from 1949-2014. I find that demographic movements can account for 25-45% of the low-frequency movements in productivity growth, and the simulated inflation due to only demographic shocks are strongly correlated with the low-frequency movements in inflation.The second chapter, which is a joint work with Huixin Bi and Wei Dong, studies how credit expansion policy, pursued by the Chinese government to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis episode, affects bank-firm loan contracts and the broad macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions, in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and default probability. We show that more persistent credit shocks lead to higher fiscal multipliers at all horizons, as the benefits of persistently alleviating firms' borrowing constraint outweigh the costs associated with higher non-performing loans.The third chapter, which is a joint work with Grey Gordon, develops computational tools to help researchers calibrate parameters in macroeconomic models. It proposes tests for determining whether a calibration strategy can match target moments using a model's parameters. The tests use moments at random parameter draws to assess whether the target moments are similar to the computed ones (evidence of existence) or appear to be outliers (evidence of non-existence). Our experiments show the tests are effective at detecting both existence and non-existence in a non-linear model.
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