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Forecasting accuracy, rational expec...

Schaefer, Matthew Phillip.

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Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry./
Author:	Schaefer, Matthew Phillip.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 1999,
Description:	96 p.
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 38-04, page: 8780.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International38-04.
Subject:	Agricultural economics. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=1398649
ISBN:	9780599686779

Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry.
Schaefer, Matthew Phillip.

Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 1999 - 96 p.

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 38-04, page: 8780.

Thesis (M.S.)--Michigan State University, 1999.

Recent studies have tested whether futures prices respond to U.S. Department of Agriculture inventory reports in accordance with the efficient market hypothesis. These studies use survey forecasts to identify the anticipated and unanticipated information contained in a report. However, this approach implicitly assumes the survey forecast to be an unbiased and efficient predictor of the data in the USDA report. Furthermore, previous studies have not tested the bias and efficiency properties of USDA preliminary estimates as predictors of final revised USDA figures. This study introduces a framework for conducting tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the presence of biased and inefficient survey forecasts, and preliminary USDA estimates that are biased and inefficient predictors of final revised figures. The approach is applied to the US beef cattle industry and results are quite different from those obtained using the conventional analysis.

ISBN: 9780599686779Subjects--Topical Terms:

3172150
Agricultural economics.

Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry.
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245 1 0 $a Forecasting accuracy, rational expectations, and market efficiency in the United States beef cattle industry.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 1999
300 $a 96 p.
500 $a Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 38-04, page: 8780.
502 $a Thesis (M.S.)--Michigan State University, 1999.
520 $a Recent studies have tested whether futures prices respond to U.S. Department of Agriculture inventory reports in accordance with the efficient market hypothesis. These studies use survey forecasts to identify the anticipated and unanticipated information contained in a report. However, this approach implicitly assumes the survey forecast to be an unbiased and efficient predictor of the data in the USDA report. Furthermore, previous studies have not tested the bias and efficiency properties of USDA preliminary estimates as predictors of final revised USDA figures. This study introduces a framework for conducting tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the presence of biased and inefficient survey forecasts, and preliminary USDA estimates that are biased and inefficient predictors of final revised figures. The approach is applied to the US beef cattle industry and results are quite different from those obtained using the conventional analysis.
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710 2 $a Michigan State University. $3 676168
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