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How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring...

Gallop, David L.

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How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification./
Author:	Gallop, David L.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2017,
Description:	271 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-04(E), Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International78-04B(E).
Subject:	Systems science. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10239643
ISBN:	9781369375411

How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification.
Gallop, David L.

How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2017 - 271 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-04(E), Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The George Washington University, 2017.

Risk identification is the most important step in the risk management process because risks that are unidentified are implicitly assumed and unmanaged. Projects face the challenge of increasing complexity and uncertainty. Risk management has taken advantage of powerful quantitative tools to analyze historical data and reports. However, these tools are not enough to identify the unprecedented, hard-to-predict, and potentially catastrophic risks called black swans. To "catch a black swan," we need to understand the capabilities and limitations of creativity-based risk identification tools. Group dynamics threaten the collaborative processes of creativity-based tools, leaving technology projects vulnerable to black swans. The premortem technique is the theoretical opposite of a postmortem. The premortem process starts by declaring that the project has failed. Premortem makes it safe for the team to be critical of each other, question assumptions, share information, study interrelationships and address risk areas that may otherwise go unaddressed. This study used several data collection and evaluation techniques (structured observation, subject surveys, and expert panel review) to study the collaborative power of the premortem technique against the time-tested brainstorming method when considering risks in a technology insertion (system upgrade) plan. The study compared the quality of the products resulting from the two techniques and found the premortem superior to brainstorming in three of the hypothesis tests. The findings are important to senior decision makers, educators, managers, and systems engineers.

ISBN: 9781369375411Subjects--Topical Terms:

3168411
Systems science.

How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification.
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245 1 0 $a How to Catch a Black Swan: Measuring the Benefits of the Premortem Technique for Risk Identification.
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300 $a 271 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-04(E), Section: B.
500 $a Advisers: Christopher Willy; John Bischoff.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The George Washington University, 2017.
520 $a Risk identification is the most important step in the risk management process because risks that are unidentified are implicitly assumed and unmanaged. Projects face the challenge of increasing complexity and uncertainty. Risk management has taken advantage of powerful quantitative tools to analyze historical data and reports. However, these tools are not enough to identify the unprecedented, hard-to-predict, and potentially catastrophic risks called black swans. To "catch a black swan," we need to understand the capabilities and limitations of creativity-based risk identification tools. Group dynamics threaten the collaborative processes of creativity-based tools, leaving technology projects vulnerable to black swans. The premortem technique is the theoretical opposite of a postmortem. The premortem process starts by declaring that the project has failed. Premortem makes it safe for the team to be critical of each other, question assumptions, share information, study interrelationships and address risk areas that may otherwise go unaddressed. This study used several data collection and evaluation techniques (structured observation, subject surveys, and expert panel review) to study the collaborative power of the premortem technique against the time-tested brainstorming method when considering risks in a technology insertion (system upgrade) plan. The study compared the quality of the products resulting from the two techniques and found the premortem superior to brainstorming in three of the hypothesis tests. The findings are important to senior decision makers, educators, managers, and systems engineers.
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