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Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Ho...

Guan, Tao.

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Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China./
作者:	Guan, Tao.
出版者:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2017,
面頁冊數:	274 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-11(E), Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International78-11A(E).
標題:	Economics. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10278674
ISBN:	9780355032307

Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China.
Guan, Tao.

Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2017 - 274 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-11(E), Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Clemson University, 2017.

Four phenomena can be observed in China's housing in the past 16 years: First, the vacancy rate of new condominium properties has increased significantly. Second, housing prices have been increasing very rapidly. In fact, the prices have rarely decreased even when strict housing policies are mandated. Third, housing transactions are active, as indicated by the new condominiums that are sold very quickly. Four, new construction activities are also very active. Phenomena 2, 3, and 4 are inherently consistent, but the coexistence of phenomena 2, 3, and 4 with phenomenon 1 is very perplexing. Thus, the following research questions can be raised: how can housing prices keep increasing despite high vacancy rates? How can new condominiums be sold quickly when vacancy rates are high? How can construction activities continue when vacancy rates are high? This is a puzzle.

ISBN: 9780355032307Subjects--Topical Terms:

517137
Economics.

Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China.
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245 1 0 $a Income Inequality, Rapidly Rising Housing Prices and Overdevelopment of Houses in China.
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300 $a 274 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 78-11(E), Section: A.
500 $a Advisers: Thomas Springer; Elaine Worzala.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Clemson University, 2017.
520 $a Four phenomena can be observed in China's housing in the past 16 years: First, the vacancy rate of new condominium properties has increased significantly. Second, housing prices have been increasing very rapidly. In fact, the prices have rarely decreased even when strict housing policies are mandated. Third, housing transactions are active, as indicated by the new condominiums that are sold very quickly. Four, new construction activities are also very active. Phenomena 2, 3, and 4 are inherently consistent, but the coexistence of phenomena 2, 3, and 4 with phenomenon 1 is very perplexing. Thus, the following research questions can be raised: how can housing prices keep increasing despite high vacancy rates? How can new condominiums be sold quickly when vacancy rates are high? How can construction activities continue when vacancy rates are high? This is a puzzle.
520 $a This puzzle is connected with another puzzle: the excessive liquidity in China's housing market has been oddly coexisting with the insufficient demand in China's consumer market in past 16 years. The second puzzle can is easily observed even though it has been largely ignored over past 16 years.
520 $a The following hypotheses are put forward: Hypothesis 1: At a certain time point, higher-income households will spend a lower proportion of their income on consumption compared with lower-income households. If this hypothesis can be verified, then severe income inequality will lead to an overly-high aggregate savings rate and an extremely low aggregate consumption rate; Hypothesis 2: Overly-high aggregate savings rates and extremely low aggregate consumption rates caused by severe income inequality will induce high investment demand in the virtual sector rather than the real sector. As a result, the virtual sector will boom while the real sector will decline. Hypothesis 3: Given a declining real sector, investors prefer houses to other kinds of assets in the virtual sector due to the unique features of houses. This leads to rapidly rising housing prices and overdevelopment.
520 $a Testing the Hypotheses above is a big challenge because the Gini Coefficient announced by China's government is not trustworthy. The data about GDP and per capita disposable income are not reliable, too. Great effort was exerted in collecting actual data on the variables mentioned above. These efforts include establishing rapport with officials in the National Bureau of Statistics of China, obtaining special access to the database of academic or non-profit research institutes and buying data from private institutes in China. Through these efforts, improved quarterly data of GDP, housing policy, monetary supply for 70 cities from 2000 to 2016 are obtained , although the data on Gini coefficient remain unreliable.
520 $a The theoretical work in this study includes:
520 $a First, the economic relationship between income levels and consumption rates, that is, higher-income households will spend a lower proportion of their income on consumption compared with lower-income households, is confirmed by economic data. Moreover, the new economic relationship is explained using Modern Portfolio Theory and information cost.
520 $a Second, by mathematical proof, it turns out that more severe income inequality will lead to a higher aggregate saving rate as well as a lower aggregate consumption rate under this economic relationship. A theoretical model further shows that the aggregate savings rate caused by income equality will result in investor's preference for virtual assets rather than real assets or consumption goods.
520 $a Third, a unique feature of houses is found, which can be used to explain why houses are preferred over other virtual assets and why housing bubbles can last longer than speculative bubbles of other virtual assets, such as commercial properties, stocks and mutual funds. The unique feature of housing is that the utility an owner obtains from living in his own house is greater than the utility a tenant gets from living in the same house if it was leased. Therefore, market rents, which are the "price" of the "price" of the utility a tenants get, cannot fully reflect the market fundamentals of a house due to the existence of non-rent utility. As a result, house prices lose the signal for market fundamentals and can continuously increase in the long term. This is the reason why houses are preferred by investors.
520 $a Fourth, a new measure which is called Ratio of Gross Domestic Income to Gross Domestic Product (RGG) is built in place of the Gini coefficient as a measure for income equality. The official data are not trustworthy because unreported income is not taken into account. If unreported income can be measured and employed in the analysis of income inequality, a better measure for income inequality can be obtained. The following is the problem-solving process. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
590 $a School code: 0050.
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