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Coastal policy simulations: A GIS fr...

Nettleman, Charles A., III.

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Coastal policy simulations: A GIS framework to analyze the relative differences in coastal policies.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Coastal policy simulations: A GIS framework to analyze the relative differences in coastal policies./
Author:	Nettleman, Charles A., III.
Description:	129 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 77-08(E), Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International77-08B(E).
Subject:	Geographic information science and geodesy. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10035819
ISBN:	9781339540504

Coastal policy simulations: A GIS framework to analyze the relative differences in coastal policies.
Nettleman, Charles A., III.

Coastal policy simulations: A GIS framework to analyze the relative differences in coastal policies. - 129 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 77-08(E), Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2015.

Florida faces a substantial threat from sea level rise (SLR) over the next century because of its low and flat topography in addition to its populous coastlines. With only a one foot future water level rise, most of Florida's natural beaches will disappear; with a four-foot rise, millions of acres will be lost. Given that 80% of Florida residents live in coastal counties, local policymakers must begin acting now to prevent widespread losses due to SLR inundation. This study analyzes the relative differences between three SLR coastal policies using digital elevation models and county parcel datasets in a GIS environment. A coastal policy simulation prototype was developed to simulate armoring, armoring prohibition, and rolling easements using SLR estimates from 0.15 m to 1.35 m in 0.15 m steps in Key West, FL and Pinellas County, FL. This prototypes indicated the feasibility of the rolling easement policy and highlighted the need for a better rolling easement compensation estimation model. A negative exponential function of SLR inundation risk was proposed to calculate rolling easement compensation payments. The rolling easement model was applied on SLR scenarios ranging from 0.30 m to 2.1 m with 0.30 m steps. The calculation of easement payments to home owners is performed based on the percentage of people accepting an easement, a friction coefficient to control how quick the rolling easement payment will be reduced, and an overall monetary discount of property value. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the model parameters. Large uncertainties in home owners selecting to participate in the rolling easement program are addressed using Monte Carlo analysis. In this analysis, the model is run 100 times with different randomly selected properties each time the model is run. The results for Pinellas County, FL and Sarasota County, FL show that acceptance of a rolling easement policy is dependent on physical features such as topography. For example, compensation payments in low-lying and densely built Pinellas ($200k at 1.2 m) were about 16 times more expensive than Sarasota ($12.5k at 1.2 m) using the same model parameters. The sensitivity analysis performed on three of the rolling easement compensation parameters highlighted the effect of the buy-in ratio as a key parameter controlling the policy cost. In general, changing the friction coefficient values affected the rolling easement payments by tens of millions. On the other hand, the buy-in percentage had a much stronger influence on the rolling easement payment (hundreds of millions of dollars). Moreover, the buy-in percentage has a strong connection with social perception of SLR, which suggests the need for social science studies and programs to understand the interaction among the rolling easement parameters and human behavior.

ISBN: 9781339540504Subjects--Topical Terms:

2122917
Geographic information science and geodesy.

Coastal policy simulations: A GIS framework to analyze the relative differences in coastal policies.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 77-08(E), Section: B.
500 $a Adviser: Amr Abd-Elrahman.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2015.
520 $a Florida faces a substantial threat from sea level rise (SLR) over the next century because of its low and flat topography in addition to its populous coastlines. With only a one foot future water level rise, most of Florida's natural beaches will disappear; with a four-foot rise, millions of acres will be lost. Given that 80% of Florida residents live in coastal counties, local policymakers must begin acting now to prevent widespread losses due to SLR inundation. This study analyzes the relative differences between three SLR coastal policies using digital elevation models and county parcel datasets in a GIS environment. A coastal policy simulation prototype was developed to simulate armoring, armoring prohibition, and rolling easements using SLR estimates from 0.15 m to 1.35 m in 0.15 m steps in Key West, FL and Pinellas County, FL. This prototypes indicated the feasibility of the rolling easement policy and highlighted the need for a better rolling easement compensation estimation model. A negative exponential function of SLR inundation risk was proposed to calculate rolling easement compensation payments. The rolling easement model was applied on SLR scenarios ranging from 0.30 m to 2.1 m with 0.30 m steps. The calculation of easement payments to home owners is performed based on the percentage of people accepting an easement, a friction coefficient to control how quick the rolling easement payment will be reduced, and an overall monetary discount of property value. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the model parameters. Large uncertainties in home owners selecting to participate in the rolling easement program are addressed using Monte Carlo analysis. In this analysis, the model is run 100 times with different randomly selected properties each time the model is run. The results for Pinellas County, FL and Sarasota County, FL show that acceptance of a rolling easement policy is dependent on physical features such as topography. For example, compensation payments in low-lying and densely built Pinellas ($200k at 1.2 m) were about 16 times more expensive than Sarasota ($12.5k at 1.2 m) using the same model parameters. The sensitivity analysis performed on three of the rolling easement compensation parameters highlighted the effect of the buy-in ratio as a key parameter controlling the policy cost. In general, changing the friction coefficient values affected the rolling easement payments by tens of millions. On the other hand, the buy-in percentage had a much stronger influence on the rolling easement payment (hundreds of millions of dollars). Moreover, the buy-in percentage has a strong connection with social perception of SLR, which suggests the need for social science studies and programs to understand the interaction among the rolling easement parameters and human behavior.
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793 $a English
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