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Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks/ edited by Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer.
other author:	De Franco, Chiara,
Published:	Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ;Palgrave Macmillan, : c2011.,
Description:	1 online resource (xiv, 285 p.) :ill.
[NT 15003449]:	Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- PART I: FORECASTING HARM -- The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D. Omand -- Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J. Goldman -- Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V. Brummer, C. Burnley, H. Carlsen, A. Duta, B. Giegerich & R. Magoni -- Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F. Wagner -- Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T. Van Der Beken -- PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS -- Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W. Shapcott -- Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D. Demeritt & S. Nobert -- Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S. Gerstein & E.H. Schein -- PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS -- Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C. Crossin & J. Smither -- From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H. Rothstein, O. Borraz & M. Huber -- Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G. Tett -- Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F. Huertas -- Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H. Fishbein -- Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O. Meyer & C. De Franco.
Subject:	Risk - Forecasting. -
Online resource:	http://www.palgraveconnect.com/doifinder/10.1057/9780230316911An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click for information
ISBN:	9780230316911 (electronic bk.)

Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks
Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks[electronic resource] /edited by Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer. - Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ;Palgrave Macmillan,c2011. - 1 online resource (xiv, 285 p.) :ill.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- PART I: FORECASTING HARM -- The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D. Omand -- Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J. Goldman -- Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V. Brummer, C. Burnley, H. Carlsen, A. Duta, B. Giegerich & R. Magoni -- Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F. Wagner -- Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T. Van Der Beken -- PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS -- Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W. Shapcott -- Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D. Demeritt & S. Nobert -- Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S. Gerstein & E.H. Schein -- PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS -- Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C. Crossin & J. Smither -- From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H. Rothstein, O. Borraz & M. Huber -- Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G. Tett -- Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F. Huertas -- Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H. Fishbein -- Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O. Meyer & C. De Franco.

What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties cannot be eliminated, contributors suggest ways in which organisations, journalists, scientists and decision-makers can at least mitigate them.

ISBN: 9780230316911 (electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 9786613266637

Source: 501160Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgraveconnect.comSubjects--Topical Terms:

1975858
Risk
--Forecasting.Index Terms--Genre/Form:

542853
Electronic books.

LC Class. No.: HM1101 / .F67 2011

Dewey Class. No.: 363.34/2

Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks
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505 0 $a Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- PART I: FORECASTING HARM -- The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D. Omand -- Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J. Goldman -- Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V. Brummer, C. Burnley, H. Carlsen, A. Duta, B. Giegerich & R. Magoni -- Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F. Wagner -- Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T. Van Der Beken -- PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS -- Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C. De Franco & C.O. Meyer -- Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W. Shapcott -- Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D. Demeritt & S. Nobert -- Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S. Gerstein & E.H. Schein -- PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS -- Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C. Crossin & J. Smither -- From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H. Rothstein, O. Borraz & M. Huber -- Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G. Tett -- Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F. Huertas -- Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H. Fishbein -- Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O. Meyer & C. De Franco.
520 $a What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties cannot be eliminated, contributors suggest ways in which organisations, journalists, scientists and decision-makers can at least mitigate them.
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