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China's grain consumption demand and...

Liu, Xiaozhan (Jean).

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China's grain consumption demand and its implications for Canada-China grain trade.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	China's grain consumption demand and its implications for Canada-China grain trade./
作者:	Liu, Xiaozhan (Jean).
面頁冊數:	195 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-10, Section: A, page: 3926.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International65-10A.
標題:	Economics, Agricultural. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=NQ95975
ISBN:	0612959759

China's grain consumption demand and its implications for Canada-China grain trade.
Liu, Xiaozhan (Jean).

China's grain consumption demand and its implications for Canada-China grain trade. - 195 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-10, Section: A, page: 3926.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Alberta (Canada), 2004.

This study is directed at the projection of China's grain consumption and imports in the context of changing patterns of meat consumption, recognizing current patterns of livestock production. National-level aggregated time-series data for the period from 1952 to 1999 are applied to partial adjustment models to empirically analyze demand for grain used in direct and indirect human consumption, as food and feed grains and in the use of beverages. Price and income elasticity estimates are derived and reported for long-run and short-run periods of adjustment and the implications of these estimates for changes in consumption are explored. Time-varying parameter models are also developed and applied to forecast grain demand in China with the same set of price and income data. Estimation results are assessed and compared.

ISBN: 0612959759Subjects--Topical Terms:

626648
Economics, Agricultural.

China's grain consumption demand and its implications for Canada-China grain trade.
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500 $a Advisers: Terry Veeman; Michele Veeman.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Alberta (Canada), 2004.
520 $a This study is directed at the projection of China's grain consumption and imports in the context of changing patterns of meat consumption, recognizing current patterns of livestock production. National-level aggregated time-series data for the period from 1952 to 1999 are applied to partial adjustment models to empirically analyze demand for grain used in direct and indirect human consumption, as food and feed grains and in the use of beverages. Price and income elasticity estimates are derived and reported for long-run and short-run periods of adjustment and the implications of these estimates for changes in consumption are explored. Time-varying parameter models are also developed and applied to forecast grain demand in China with the same set of price and income data. Estimation results are assessed and compared.
520 $a The time-varying parameter estimates are applied in a simulation model to analyze and forecast China's future food grain, feed grain and other grain demands. This Excel spreadsheet-based model is used to develop projections of feed grain demand changes for different scenarios of income and population growth, grain supply conditions, and grain-meat conversion ratios. It is concluded that future per capita food grain consumption will not increase rapidly, but will slowly fall, while per capita consumption of meat and grain-based beverages will increase fairly rapidly. However, grain imports in the near future are unlikely to result from rapid feed grain increases, due to the prevalent style of livestock production. A continuing deficit is projected for the directly consumed food grain balance due to dietary substitution of fine for coarse grains. The base scenario projection is that the demand for wheat will increase by 10 million metric tons by 2020. Unless wheat yields increase by 30 percent or more from current production levels (3.9 mmt/hectare), based on current farmland areas, China will have to import more wheat from international markets.
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