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Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa?...

Likasiri, Chulin.

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Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa? A systems approach to carrying capacity analysis using scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision making.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa? A systems approach to carrying capacity analysis using scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision making./
作者:	Likasiri, Chulin.
面頁冊數:	173 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-07, Section: B, page: 3682.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International65-07B.
標題:	Engineering, System Science. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3138808
ISBN:	0496859602

Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa? A systems approach to carrying capacity analysis using scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision making.
Likasiri, Chulin.

Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa? A systems approach to carrying capacity analysis using scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision making. - 173 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 65-07, Section: B, page: 3682.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Case Western Reserve University, 2004.

This dissertation studies global and regional carrying capacities using system techniques. Food production and consumption, water supply and demand, energy, soil, and land are important factors determining a region's carrying capacity. Focusing on food and water issues, we use scenario analysis and multi-objective optimization with dynamic constraints to try to gain a better understanding of potential problems and propose possible policy solutions.

ISBN: 0496859602Subjects--Topical Terms:

1018128
Engineering, System Science.

Can China starve sub-Saharan Africa? A systems approach to carrying capacity analysis using scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision making.
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502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Case Western Reserve University, 2004.
520 $a This dissertation studies global and regional carrying capacities using system techniques. Food production and consumption, water supply and demand, energy, soil, and land are important factors determining a region's carrying capacity. Focusing on food and water issues, we use scenario analysis and multi-objective optimization with dynamic constraints to try to gain a better understanding of potential problems and propose possible policy solutions.
520 $a Our case study using system-based model to analyze the food security relationship between China and Sub-Saharan Africa attempts to answer the following questions: (1) How would China's food demand pattern and production systems affect Sub-Saharan Africa's sustainability? (2) How would world food export distribution impact the population carrying capacity of these regions? (3) How would China's water resource policy affect its food production? (4) Most importantly, what policies could the Chinese government implement to achieve sustainability?
520 $a To solve these problems, mathematical models are used to simulate population, economic conditions, agriculture, water resource supply and demand, carrying capacity and world food trade; scenarios are developed and goal programming is used to aid decision modelling.
520 $a Scenario analysis of food and water issues shows that, although China's growing animal product demand greatly influences its total food demand, feed grain percentage has more impact on the country's ability to sustain its population. World export capacity distribution also affects China's and Sub-Saharan Africa's ability to sustain themselves.
520 $a On the issue of China's water resource, goal programming is used to develop a minimum cost solution to water shortage. Results show that food production will increase with proposed water projects though water shortage will remain a problem. For the FAO's target of reducing world hunger by half by 2015 to be achieved, China must keep its feed grain percentage stable at the current level while increasing food production by 10 percent by 2009, and then maintain that ratio. If China's projected food demand decreases by 10 percent, the number of its undernourished people will fall by another 30 million by 2050. With that target achieved, Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to reach its goal of reducing its undernourished population to 60 million in 2043 from 195 million currently.
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